Economic Perspectives
A quarterly journal of in-depth articles reporting on the Bank's economic research.
Fourth Quarter 2009 Edition:
How will baby boomer retirements affect teacher labor markets?
Daniel Aaronson
Katherine Meckel
The authors estimate teacher demand and supply through 2020 to gauge the impact of baby boomer retirements on the
demand for new teachers. They find that the projected demand will accelerate through at least 2020, and a good portion
of this increase will be due to retirements. Still, this demand, once it has been adjusted for the size of the potential
work force, will not be considerably different from that of the past five decades. (PDF,641KB)
The recession of 1937—A cautionary tale
François R. Velde
This article reviews the competing explanations offered for the recession of 1937, which interrupted the
recovery from the Great Depression. One explanation, increases in labor costs due to the New Deal's industrial
policies, fails to account for the full extent of the downturn and for the ensuing recovery. In contrast,
monetary policy and fiscal policy seem to capture the downturn—although not its precise timing—and the recovery. (PDF,1.02MB)
Employment growth: Cyclical movements or structural change?
Ellen R. Rissman
In judging the degree of slack in the economy, policymakers must determine the origin of any increase in the
unemployment rate—specifically, how much of it is due to a cyclical slowdown (driven by the broader economy)
as opposed to a structural realignment in production (driven by a shift in production from declining industries
to expanding ones). The model developed in this article provides some insight into the sources and magnitude
of structural change and its impact on the unemployment rate. (PDF,1.16MB)
Conference on Bank Structure and Competition: Call for papers (PDF,137KB)
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