Economic Perspectives

A quarterly journal of in-depth articles reporting on the Bank's economic research.

Second Quarter 2008 Edition:

Does education improve health? A reexamination of the evidence from compulsory schooling laws
Bhashkar Mazumder
This article analyzes the impact of compulsory schooling laws early in the twentieth century on long-term health. The author finds no compelling evidence for a causal link between education and health using this research design. Further, the results suggest that only a small fraction of health conditions are affected by education, and several of those are conditions, such as sight and hearing, where economic theories don’t appear to be relevant. (PDF,338KB)

How do EITC recipients spend their refunds?
Andrew Goodman-Bacon Leslie McGranahan
The authors determine what items are purchased using the earned income tax credit (EITC)—one of the largest sources of public support for lower-income working families in the U.S. They find that recipient households’ EITC payments are used primarily for vehicle purchases and transportation spending, both of which are crucial to job access and consistent with the EITC’s prowork goals. (PDF,563KB)

Are inflation targets good inflation forecasts?
Marie Diron Benoît Mojon
The authors show that quantified inflation objectives, which have been adopted by many industrialized countries, can be used as rule-of-thumb forecasting devices. Remarkably, they yield smaller forecast errors than widely used forecasting models and the forecasts of professional experts. (PDF,667KB)

International Banking Conference
The Credit Market Turmoil of 2007–08:
Implications for Public Policy (PDF,85KB)