Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
Current Data

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is released at 8:30 a.m. ET on scheduled days, normally toward the end of each calendar month.


Index Suggests Economic Growth Decreased in January

We have discontinued producing the PDF release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) as of February 2024.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.30 in January from +0.02 in December. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from December, and three categories made negative contributions in January. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.02 in January from –0.14 in December.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to +0.03 in January from –0.09 in December. Twenty-six of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in January, while 59 made negative contributions. Thirty-one indicators improved from December to January, while 53 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions.

  • Production-related indicators contributed –0.16 to the CFNAI in January, down from –0.08 in December.
  • The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.04 in January, down from +0.05 in December.
  • Employment-related indicators made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in January, unchanged from December.
  • The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.10 in January, down from +0.05 in December.

CFNAI, CFNAI-MA3, and CFNAI Diffusion for the Latest Six Months and Year-Ago Month

Jan '24 Dec '23 Nov '23 Oct '23 Sep '23 Aug '23 Jan '23
CFNAI
Current -0.30 0.02 0.21 –0.65 –0.03 –0.25 0.42
Previous N/A –0.15 0.01 –0.68 –0.03 –0.21 0.39
CFNAI-MA3
Current –0.02 –0.14 –0.16 –0.31 –0.04 –0.16 –0.21
Previous N/A –0.28 –0.24 –0.31 –0.02 –0.16 –0.20
CFNAI Diffusion
Current 0.03 –0.09 –0.13 –0.37 –0.03 –0.14 –0.11
Previous N/A –0.32 –0.28 –0.41 –0.05 –0.14 –0.07
Note: Current and Previous values reflect index values as of the February 22, 2024, release and January 25, 2024, release, respectively.
NA indicates not applicable.

Download Center

CFNAI Indexes Data file XLSX
Indicators List Indicators used to construct the CFNAI PDF
Technical Report Report describing changes to the CFNAI as of January 2023 PDF
Background Slides A brief introduction to the CFNAI PDF
Background Information Detailed background on the CFNAI PDF
 

Note: A zero value for the CFNAI has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.


 

Notes: Shading represents periods of sustained increasing inflation; the vertical line indicates the start of the most recent period. For details on the timing of these periods based on readings of core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices), see pp. 4–5 of the background information document. An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.


 

Notes: Shading indicates official periods of recession as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Following a period of economic expansion, an increasing likelihood of a recession has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value below –0.70. Conversely, following a period of economic contraction, an increasing likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above –0.70 and a significant likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20.


 

Notes: Shading indicates official periods of recession as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The CFNAI Diffusion Index represents the three-month moving average of the sum of the absolute values of the weights for the underlying indicators whose contribution to the CFNAI is positive in a given month less the sum of the absolute values of the weights for those indicators whose contribution is negative or neutral in a given month. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35.


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