U.S. Economy Better in July, Though Still Weak

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.50 in July from a downward revised value of –1.10 in June. Smaller reductions in industrial production and manufacturing employment led the way in improving the monthly index from its recent low in June. The three-month moving average index, CFNAI-MA3, was –0.82 in July, showing a slight improvement from the upward revised –1.02 in June. July marked the thirteenth consecutive month that the CFNAI-MA3 was below zero, an indication that the national economy has been growing below trend for over a year. Index values below zero signal reduced inflationary pressures over the next year.