Economy Still at Recessionary Level

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved in November, with the monthly index rising to –1.21 from an upward revised value of –1.60 in October. Despite the improvement, the November reading of –1.49 for the three-month moving average index, CFNAI-MA3, was little changed from the upward revised value of –1.48 in October. The CFNAI-MA3 continues to be in a negative range that historically has been associated only with economic recessions. November marked the seventeenth consecutive month that the CFNAI-MA3 was below zero, an indication of how long the national economy has been growing below trend. Index values below zero signal reduced inflationary pressures over the coming year.