U.S. Economy Weak in September

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was virtually unchanged at –1.28 in September compared with an upward revised value of –1.30 in August. The September index reflects sharp declines in consumer spending and disposable income that were offset by somewhat less weakness in manufacturing employment. The three-month moving average index, CFNAI-MA3, was –0.95 in September, up from –1.02 in August. September marked the fifteenth consecutive month that the CFNAI-MA3 was below zero, an indication of how long the national economy has been growing below trend. Index values below zero signal reduced inflationary pressures over the coming year.