CFNAI Points to Continued Economic Expansion in September

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was –0.01 in September, off slightly from a downward-revised +0.03 in August. The small decline in the monthly index was primarily due to a slightly larger negative contribution from the employment-related indicators in September than in August. The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged up to +0.19 in September from +0.17 in August. CFNAI-MA3 readings above zero are associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.19 in September suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend for the thirteenth straight month. With regard to inflation, CFNAI-MA3 values above zero suggest increased inflationary pressures over the coming year.