CFNAI Shows Above-Trend Economic Growth in March

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.11 in March, down from +0.22 in February. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that comprise the index made positive contributions in March (see sidebar). The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was +0.17 in March, down from +0.42 in February. CFNAI-MA3 readings above zero are associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.17 in March suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend for the nineteenth straight month. With regard to inflation, CFNAI-MA3 values above zero suggest increased inflationary pressures over the coming year.