CFNAI Points to Above-Trend Economic Growth Slightyly Above Trend in December

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.39 in December, up markedly from +0.05 in November. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that comprise the index made positive contributions in December, while the employment-related category made a negative contribution. The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.33 in December from +0.11 the previous month. CFNAI-MA3 readings above zero are associated with abovetrend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.33 suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend for the sixteenth straight month. With regard to inflation, CFNAI-MA3 values above zero suggest increased inflationary pressures over the coming year.