CFNAI Indicates Economic Growth Slightyly Above Trend in June

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.28 in June, up from –0.03 in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index—production and income, consumption and housing, and sales, orders, and inventories—made positive contributions (see sidebar). The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was +0.12 in June. A CFNAI-MA3 reading above zero is associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.12 in June suggests that growth in national economic activity was slightly above its historical trend. With regard to inflation, a CFNAI-MA3 value near zero indicates relatively neutral inflationary pressures.