CFNAI Indicates Economic Growth Near Trend in April

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.10 in April, up from –0.04 in March. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that comprise the index—employment and consumption and housing—made positive contributions (see sidebar). The three-month moving average,CFNAI-MA3, remained at +0.08 in April. CFNAI-MA3 readings above zero are associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.08 in April suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend for the twentieth straight month. With regard to inflation, CFNAI-MA3 values above zero suggest increased inflationary pressures over the coming year.