CFNAI Indicates Economic Growth Near Trend in October
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.73 in October, up from –0.82 in September. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made positive contributions (see sidebar). The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was –0.03 in October. A CFNAI-MA3 reading of zero is associated with trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of –0.03 in October suggests that growth in national economic activity was about at its historical trend. With regard to inflation, a CFNAI-MA3 value near zero indicates little inflationary pressure over the coming year.