CFNAI Indicates Economic Growth Below Trend in September

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was –0.71 in September, down from –0.09 in August. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index—production and employment—made negative contributions (see sidebar). The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was –0.20 in September. A CFNAI-MA3 reading of zero is associated with trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of –0.20 in September suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, a CFNAI-MA3 value of zero indicates neutral inflationary pressures over the coming year.