CFNAI Indicates Economic Growth Below Trend in November

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was –0.26 in November, slightly up from –0.30 in October. All of the four broad categories of indicators in the index made negative contributions (see sidebar). The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined from –0.22 in October to –0.32 in November. A CFNAI-MA3 reading below zero is associated with below-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of –0.32 for November suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, a CFNAI-MA3 value below zero indicates little inflationary pressure over the coming year.