CFNAI Shows Economic Growth Above Trend in February

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.32 in February, up from +0.28 in January. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made positive contributions, while the remaining category made a neutral contribution (see sidebar). The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was +0.36 in February. A CFNAI-MA3 reading above zero is associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.36 in February suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend. With regard to inflation, a CFNAI-MA3 value above zero indicates the potential for inflationary pressures over the coming year.