CFNAI Indicates Economic Growth Near Below Trend in October

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was –0.31 in October, slightly up from –0.38 in September. All of the four broad categories of indicators made negative contributions to the index (see sidebar). The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined from –0.15 in September to –0.19 in October. A CFNAI-MA3 reading below zero is associated with belowtrend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of –0.19 for October suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, a CFNAI-MA3 value below zero indicates little inflationary pressure over the coming year.