CFNAI Indicates Economic Growth Below Trend in September

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was –0.51 in September, down from –0.06 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators in the index made negative contributions (see sidebar). The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined from +0.05 in August to –0.25 in September. A CFNAI-MA3 reading below zero is associated with below-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of –0.25 for September suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, a CFNAI-MA3 value below zero indicates little inflationary pressure over the coming year.