CFNAI Indicates Economic Growth Near Trend in August

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was –0.18 in August, down from –0.07 in July. Two of the four broad categories of indicators in the index made negative contributions (see sidebar). The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined from +0.09 in July to +0.05 in August. A CFNAI-MA3 reading above zero is associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.05 for August suggests that growth in national economic activity was near its historical trend. With regard to inflation, a CFNAI-MA3 value above zero indicates the potential for inflationary pressures over the coming year.