Midwest Economy
Information about the Seventh Federal Reserve District states, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin; economic indicators; articles on Midwest issues; and news about conferences and projects.
Bill Testa on the Midwest Economy
Research Vice President Bill Testa and special guest commentators offer unique perspectives on the Midwest economy through this blog including topics such as engergy, regional production and the auto industry.
Press Release and Presentations for the 2013 Automotive Outlook Symposium
According to the median forecast of 25 symposium participants, the nation’s economic growth rate in 2013 is expected to be higher than in 2012. To read the full release or view the presentations, visit the symposium's website.
Michigan Retail Sales Rebound in April
The April Michigan Retail Index found that 46 percent of retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 34 percent recorded declines and 20 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 54.0, up from 47.8 in March. A year ago April it was 52.6.
Midwest Manufacturing Index Output Decreased in April
The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) decreased 0.5% in April, to a seasonally adjusted level of 95.9 (2007 = 100). Revised data show the index was up 0.3% in March. While most of the subsectors also decreased, the resource output subsector increased 0.1% in April.The Impact of Lower Natural Gas Prices on the Freight Transportation Sector
Projections of natural gas supply in this country have gone up so quickly in the past decade that it is hard to get a good handle on where energy markets are going to settle in the decade. In his new blog post, business economist Paul Traub from our Detroit Branch talks about the how an increase in the natural gas supply may result in lowered costs for the freight industry..
Presenations Now Available from the New Access to Energy: Midwest and Global Industry Impacts Conference
On April 8-9, 2013, we hosted a conference at our Detroit Branch that considered the development opportunities and economic impact of natural gas and other energy sources. Some of the presentations from that event are now available online.Midwest Farmland Values Still Rising
Seventh District farmland values in the first quarter of 2013 were 15 percent higher than a year ago.Midwest Economic Growth Picked Up in March
The Midwest Economy Index (MEI) increased to +0.27 in March from +0.21 in February, remaining positive for the third straight month.Industrial Cities Initiative Blog
Community Devolopment and Policy Studies has launched the Industrial Cities Initiative. This project examines 10 cities in the Seventh District that had populations of 50,000 and 25% or more of their employment in manufacturing in the 1960s. Their blog tells us about where those cities have been and where those cities stand today. Take a look at their most recent posting, then sign up for email alerts.
Data Reports for Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin
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Midwest Manufacturing by Concentration by Industry
View manufacturing industry results in html format or download the excel file.Midwest Metropolitan Services by Concentration by Industry
View services industry results in html format or download the excel file.Quick Definitions
Concentration Index — also called location quotient, this index is created by comparing the ratio of any economic indicator from one region to another. In the charts, the noted industry's employment share of a region is compared to the U.S. equivalent. For example, Illinois' food manufacturing concentration index is equal to the share of Illinois' food manufacturing employment (out of total employment) over the share of food manufacturing employment in the U.S. If the concentration of food manufacturing facilities in Illinois is similar or equal to that of the U.S, then the resulting concentration index would equal one. If there were a larger share of food manufacturing facilities in Illinois than in the U.S, then the concentration index would be above one and vice versa. (For further detail, please refer to Bill Testa's blog.)Chart Construction
The charts were constructed to split regional economies into four groups. For the x-axis, the chart is centered on 1.0, to divide the concentration indices between industries of higher concentration relative to the U.S. and those of lower concentration. The y-axis is centered on the region's median industry as measured by employment size, which essentially splits the region's industries in half such that those industries with a higher number of employees would appear above the x-axis and a lower number would appear below it. The groupings of the manufacturing industries are defined according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). The NAICS industries that are most prevalent in a region (both in concentration and size) are labeled. If a region has an especially notable industrial specialization ( beyond the NAICS 3-digit level), it is indicated in parentheses.Agricultural Issues
AgLetter: May 2013
David Oppedahl | 2013 | AgLetter | No. 1960 | May
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Understanding Recent Trends in Midwest Farmland Leasing
David Oppedahl | 2013 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 308 | March
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AgLetter: February 2013
David Oppedahl | 2013 | AgLetter | No. 1959 | February
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AgLetter: November 2012
David Oppedahl | 2012 | AgLetter | No. 1958 | November
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AgLetter: May 2012
David Oppedahl | 2012 | AgLetter | No. 1956 | May
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Rising Farmland Values: Causes and Cautions (Special Issue)
David Oppedahl | 2012 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 295a | February
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AgLetter: February 2012
David Oppedahl | 2012 | AgLetter | No. 1955 | February
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AgLetter: August 2012
David Oppedahl | 2012 | AgLetter | No. 1957 | August
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AgLetter: November 2011
David Oppedahl | 2011 | AgLetter | No. 1954 | November
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AgLetter: May 2011
David Oppedahl | 2011 | AgLetter | No. 1952 | May
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Banking, Finance and Credit
Developing Small Businesses and Leveraging Resources in Detroit (Special Issue)
Robin Newberger, Maude Toussaint-Comeau | 2013 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 306a | January
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Federal Reserve Policies and Financial Market Conditions during the Crisis (REVISED July 2011)
Scott Brave, Hesna Genay | 2011 | Working Paper | No. 2011-04 | May
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How Do Benefit Adjustments for Government Transfer Programs Compare with Their Participants' Inflation Experiences?
Leslie McGranahan, Anna Paulson | 2011 | Economic Perspectives | Vol. 35 | 4th Quarter
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Gathering Insights on the Forest from the Trees: A New Metric for Financial Conditions
Scott Brave, R. Andrew Butters | 2010 | Working Paper | No. 2010-07 | January
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The Branch Banking Boom in Illinois: A Byproduct of Restrictive Branching Laws
Erin Davis, Tara Rice | 2007 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 238 | May
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Against the Tide—Currency Use among Latin American Immigrants in Chicago
Carrie Jankowski, Richard Porter, Tara Rice | 2007 | Economic Perspectives | Vol. 31 | 2nd Quarter
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Inducing More Efficient Payment on the Illinois Tollway
Gene Amromin, Carrie Jankowski, Richard Porter | 2006 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 225 | April
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Will Writing and Bequest Motives: Early 20th Century Irish Evidence
Leslie McGranahan | 2006 | Working Paper | No. 2006-18
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Economic Cycles
A Different Way to Review the Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Scott Brave, Max Lichtenstein | 2012 | Chicago Fed Letter | Vol. 298 | May
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State Tax Revenues over the Business Cycle: Patterns and Policy Responses
Rick Mattoon, Leslie McGranahan | 2012 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 299 | June
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A Snapshot of the Midwest Economy: Past and Present
Scott Brave, Chenfei Lu | 2010 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 280 | November
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Are U.S. and Seventh District business cycles alike?
Michael A. Kouparitsas, Daisuke J. Nakajima | 2006 | Economic Perspectives | Vol. 30 | August
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Education and Training
How Do EITC Recipients Spend their Refunds?
Andrew Goodman-Bacon, Leslie McGranahan | 2008 | Economic Perspectives | Vol. 32 | 2nd Quarter
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Measuring Community College Performance
Brian Fabes, Rick Mattoon | 2007 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 242 | September
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Can Higher Education Foster Economic Growth?—A Conference Summary
Rick Mattoon | 2007 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 236a | March
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Private Schools and School Enrollment in Chicago
William Sander | 2006 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 231 | October
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Higher Education and Economic Growth (Special Issue)
Rick Mattoon | 2006 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 222a | January
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Higher Education and Economic Growth: A Conference Report (Special Issue)
Rick Mattoon | 2006 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 222b | January
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Can Higher Education Foster Economic Growth?
Rick Mattoon | 2006 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 229 | August
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A New Social Compact: How University Engagement Can Fuel Innovation
Larry Isaak, Rick Mattoon, Laura Melle | 2006 | Working Paper | No. 2006-08
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Environmental Energy
Using Vehicle Taxes To Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions Rates of New Passenger Vehicles: Evidence from France, Germany and Sweden
Thomas H. Klier, Joshua Linn | 2012 | Working Paper | No. 2012-09 | November
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Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards and the Market for New Vehicles
Thomas H. Klier, Joshua Linn | 2011 | Working Paper | No. 2011-01 | January
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Fresh Water and the Great Lakes Economic Future—A Conference Summary (Special Issue)
Martin Lavelle, Britton Lombardi | 2009 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 259a | February
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New Vehicle Characteristics and the Cost of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standard
Thomas H. Klier, Joshua Linn | 2008 | Working Paper | No. 2008-13 | July
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Household Energy Expenditures, 1982–2005
David B. Cashin, Leslie McGranahan | 2006 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 227 | June
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Foreign Trade
Globalization and the Benefits of Trade
Robert L. Thompson | 2007 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 236 | March
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Health Care
Who Would Be Affected by Soda Taxes?
Leslie McGranahan, Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach | 2011 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 284 | March
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Creating Value-Based Competition in Health Care
Sam Kahan | 2008 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 254a | September
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Facing the Challenge of Retiree Health Care: Liabilities and Responses of State and Local Governments—A Conference Summary
Rick Mattoon | 2008 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 250a | May
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The Value Chain Case for Health Care Reform—A Conference Summary
Sam Kahan, William Testa | 2008 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 248 | March
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Industry Analysis
The Growing Importance of Mexico in North America’s Auto Production
Thomas H. Klier, James Rubenstein | 2013 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 310 | May
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Using Vehicle Taxes To Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions Rates of New Passenger Vehicles: Evidence from France, Germany and Sweden
Thomas H. Klier, Joshua Linn | 2012 | Working Paper | No. 2012-09 | November
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Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2011 Results and 2012 Forecasts
William A. Strauss, Norman Wang | 2012 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 295 | February
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Economy to Keep Rolling Along in 2012 and 2013
William A. Strauss, Norman Wang | 2012 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 301 | August
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Detroit Back from the Brink? Auto Industry Crisis and Restructuring, 2008–11
Thomas H. Klier, James Rubenstein | 2012 | Economic Perspectives | Vol. 36 | 2nd Quarter
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Making Cars Smarter: The Growing Role of Electronics in Automobiles (Special Issue)
Thomas H. Klier, James Rubenstein | 2011 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 291a | October
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Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards and the Market for New Vehicles
Thomas H. Klier, Joshua Linn | 2011 | Working Paper | No. 2011-01 | January
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Economy to Keep Cruising Along in 2011 and 2012 (Special Issue)
William A. Strauss, Norman Wang | 2011 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 289a | August
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Automotive Industry Outlook: Understanding the Impact on Workers and Communities (Special Issue)
Martin Lavelle, Britton Lombardi | 2010 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 270a | January
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Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2009 Results and Forecasts for 2010
Britton Lombardi, William A. Strauss | 2010 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 271 | January
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Labor
Unemployment among Recent Veterans during the Great Recession
Jason Faberman, Taft Foster | 2013 | Economic Perspectives | Vol. 37 | January | 1st Quarter
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Dealing with the Impact of Manufacturing Job Losses in the Midwest (Special Issue)
Emily Engel, Susan Longworth | 2012 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 298a | May
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Why Are Manufacturers Struggling to Hire High-Skilled Workers?
Britton Lombardi, William Testa | 2011 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 289 | August
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Automotive Industry Outlook: Understanding the Impact on Workers and Communities (Special Issue)
Martin Lavelle, Britton Lombardi | 2010 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 270a | January
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Automotive Industry Outlook: Understanding Work Force Programs (Special Issue)
Martin Lavelle, Britton Lombardi | 2010 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 273a | April
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Public and Private Sector Compensation: What Is Affordable in This Recession and Beyond?—A Conference Summary (Special Issue)
Rick Mattoon | 2009 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 262a | May
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Why Do Firms Use Temporary Workers?
Yukako Ono | 2009 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 260 | March
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How Does Labor Adjustment in This Recession Compare with the Past?
Daniel Aaronson, Scott Brave | 2009 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 263 | June
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Food Inflation and the Consumption Patterns of U.S. Households
Leslie McGranahan | 2008 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 255 | October
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How Do EITC Recipients Spend their Refunds?
Andrew Goodman-Bacon, Leslie McGranahan | 2008 | Economic Perspectives | Vol. 32 | 2nd Quarter
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State and Local Policy
Are Local Property Tax Breaks for Businesses and Nonprofits Broken? (Special Issue)
Rick Mattoon | 2013 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 308a | March
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Managing Economic Development in Times of Fiscal Uncertainty
Rick Mattoon, Sarah Wetmore | 2013 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 312a | July
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Developing Small Businesses and Leveraging Resources in Detroit (Special Issue)
Robin Newberger, Maude Toussaint-Comeau | 2013 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 306a | January
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State Tax Revenues over the Business Cycle: Patterns and Policy Responses
Rick Mattoon, Leslie McGranahan | 2012 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 299 | June
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Beyond Parking Meters: The Future of Public–Private Partnerships (Special Issue)
Rick Mattoon, Sarah Wetmore | 2012 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 299a | June
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State Budgets Under Stress: Paths to Sustainability (Special Issue)
Rick Mattoon | 2011 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 291b | October
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Local Governments on the Brink (Special Issue)
Rick Mattoon | 2011 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 286a | May
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The Intersection of Midwest Agriculture and Rural Development (Special Issue)
David Oppedahl | 2011 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 282b | January
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How Do Benefit Adjustments for Government Transfer Programs Compare with Their Participants' Inflation Experiences?
Leslie McGranahan, Anna Paulson | 2011 | Economic Perspectives | Vol. 35 | 4th Quarter
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Charting Illinois’s Fiscal Future (Special Issue)
Rick Mattoon | 2010 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 277c | August
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Urban and Regional Economics
Index Shows Midwest Economic Growth Picked Up in March
2013 | Midwest Economy Index | March
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Midwest Manufacturing Output Increased in March
2013 | Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index | March
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Managing Economic Development in Times of Fiscal Uncertainty
Rick Mattoon, Sarah Wetmore | 2013 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 312a | July
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Developing Small Businesses and Leveraging Resources in Detroit (Special Issue)
Robin Newberger, Maude Toussaint-Comeau | 2013 | Chicago Fed Letter | No. 306a | January
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Midwest Manufacturing Output Increased in January
2013 | Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index | January
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Index Shows Midwest Economic Growth Improved in January
2013 | Midwest Economy Index | January
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Midwest Manufacturing Output Increased in February
2013 | Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index | February
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Midwest Manufacturing Output Decreased in April
2013 | Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index | April
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Index Shows Slower Midwest Economic Growth in April
2013 | Midwest Economy Index | April
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Midwest Manufacturing Output Decreased in September
2012 | Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index | September
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2013
Twentieth Annual Agriculture Conference
The annual agriculture conference will explore the risks faced by agricultural producers and lenders, as well as the risk-management tools available to them.
November 19, 2013
Economic Boot Camp
If you teach economics, please join us at this boot camp, co-sponsored with the Michigan Council on Economic Education, where you will learn about personal finance, the Federal Reserve, the European Union and economics.
June 26-27, 2013
Twentieth Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium
On May 30 and May 31, 2013, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago hosted its Twentieth Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium at its Detroit Branch. The symposium included near-term automotive and outlook and the long-term structure of the industry.
May 30-31, 2013
New Access to Energy: Midwest and Global Industry Impacts
This conference will focus primarily on shifting markets, development opportunities and economic impacts.
April 8-9, 2013
Managing Economic Development in Times of Fiscal Uncertainty: Past Crises and Current Strategies
The forum will address economic development in times of fiscal uncertainty.
April 4, 2013
2012
Workshop on Property Tax Incentives and the Treatment of Tax-Exempt Property
Co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Metropolis Strategies and the Civic Federation, this conferene explored the role of property tax incentives in supporting business growth and the treatment of nonprofit entities in the tax base.
November 30, 2012
Farmland Leases: Tales, Types and Trends
The annual agriculture conference will examine trends in farmland leasing and analyze various types of leases, within the context of the changes facing agriculture in the Midwest.
November 27, 2012
Twenty-Sixth Annual Economic Outlook Symposium
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago hosted its twenty-sixth annual Economic Outlook Symposium to focus on the forces shaping the U.S. expansion as it enters 2013.November 26, 2012
Nineteenth Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium
On May 31 and June 1, 2012, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago hosted its Nineteenth Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium at its Detroit Branch. The symposium included near-term automotive and outlook and the long-term structure of the industry.
May 31-June 1, 2012
Beyond Parking Meters: The Future of Public-Private Partnerships in Illinois
The Civic Federation, in partnership with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, presented a half-day conference on the subject of public-private partnerships.
March 14, 2012
2011
Twenty-Fifth Annual Economic Outlook Symposium
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago hosted its twenty-fifth annual Economic Outlook Symposium to focus on the forces shaping the U.S. expansion as it enters 2012.December 2, 2011
Midwest Economy: Outlook for 2012 and Beyond
The Regional Programs team hosted a conference to discuss the outlook for the Midwest.
December 1, 2011
Rising Farmland Values: Causes and Cautions
The annual agriculture conference will explore the factors contributing to large increases in agricultural land values and cash rental rates in the Midwest.
November 15, 2011
Food Safety: Policy Changes, Science-Based Opportunities
This program was designed to provide a forum for meaningful interactions between key executives and scientists, with a view to creating new products and novel, effective solutions to improve food safety.
July 19, 2011
State Budgets under Stress: Paths to Sustainability
This program looked at the current state of budgets and long-term challenges.
June 24, 2011
Eighteenth Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium
This year's symposium focuses on the near-term automotive outlook and the long-term structure of the industry.
June 2-3, 2011
2010
Economic Outlook Symposium
The symposium focused on the forces shaping the U.S. recovery during 2011.
December 3, 2010
Annual Agriculture Conference
The theme of this year's Agriculture Conference examined the intersections of Midwest agriculture and rural development.
November 9, 2010
Charting Illinois's Fiscal Future: Dealing with Structural Deficits and the Implications of High Levels of Future Debt
This conference was co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois and was designed to investigate the implications of fiscal insolvency.
June 17–18, 2010
Seventeenth Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium
This year's symposium focused on the near-term outlook for sales and the long-term landscape of automotive production.
June 3– 4, 2010
After the Perfect Storm: Competitive Forces Shaping the Auto Industry
This conference focused on the question of which factors will shape the industry's competitiveness going forward.
May 10-11, 2010
Health Care, the Employer and Insurance
This year’s program analyzed the role of insurance in the health care system.
April 26-27, 2010
New Perspectives on Health and Health Care Policy
Leading researchers on health care policy discussed new perspectives on important policy topics.
March 22-23, 2010
