Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS)

Current Data

The Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS) tracks the U.S. Census Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) on a weekly basis, providing an early snapshot of national retail spending. Updates to CARTS are released at 8:30 a.m. ET on scheduled days. CARTS is released 1) a day ahead of the U.S. Census Bureau’s retail sales release summarizing data through the end of the prior month (final release) and 2) near the end of each month summarizing the weekly data available through mid-month (preliminary release).

*Retail sales projections are based on the MRTS & MARTS and weekly data for retail transactions from Bloomberg Second Measure, Consumer Edge, Facteus, Numerator, and SafeGraph; retail foot traffic from Advan Research; gasoline sales from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); and consumer sentiment from Morning Consult. Retail & food services sales ex. auto are projected from the mixed-frequency dynamic factor model used to estimate the Weekly Index of Retail Trade. Retail price projections are based on the BEA retail & food services ex. auto chain-weighted price index and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consumer price index for commodities ex. motor vehicles; weekly gas prices from the EIA; a weekly index of online prices from State Street PriceStats; and the monthly Adobe Digital Price Index and Numerator Consumer Goods Price Index. Retail & food services prices ex. auto are projected from the mixed-frequency vector autoregressive model used to estimate the Weekly Index of Retail Prices.

The first figure shows retail & food services sales ex. auto from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) and Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MARTS). Also shown in the figure as a seasonally adjusted monthly rate is a weekly index of retail trade that is benchmarked to the Census Bureau’s data. The index summarizes weekly data on retail transactions & foot traffic, gasoline sales, and consumer sentiment, and is used to project current monthly retail & food services sales ex. auto.