Economic Perspectives
A New “Big Data” Index of U.S. Economic Activity
Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley
The authors present a new “big data” index of U.S. economic activity that can be used to track business and inflation cycles in real time and estimate monthly real gross domestic product growth.
Bridging Between Policymakers’ and Economists’ Views on Bubbles
Senior economist Gadi Barlevy examines the gap between policymakers and researchers when it comes to asset bubbles. He describes policymakers’ key questions about asset bubbles and asks how economic models might be used to shed light on them.
Seasonal and Business Cycles of U.S. Employment
Menelik Geremew and François Gourio
The authors document several facts about the seasonality of U.S. employment, including its marked decline since the 1960s. In addition, they find there is little evidence that industries or states that are more seasonal are also more sensitive to the business cycle, contrary to some previous studies.
A Monetarist View of the Fed’s Balance Sheet Normalization Period
This article examines the methodology used to determine that the Fed’s remittances to the U.S. Treasury will remain positive during its balance sheet normalization period. In 2017, the Fed began the process of gradually shrinking its balance sheet by reducing its fixed-income holdings.
