Second Quarter 2015 Edition
This article reviews the literature on greater-fool theories of bubbles, which argue that bubbles can arise if traders are willing to buy assets they know to be overvalued because they hope to later sell them at a profit to others. The author discusses two approaches that attempt to model this phenomenon and what these approaches imply for economic policy.
The author develops a simple model of the gross flows of workers across labor market states that is based on Krusell et al. (2012). Its simplicity allows for analytical derivations that make the determination of these flows transparent. Moreover, he finds that if errors in the classification of agents’ labor market states are introduced and allowed to vary over time, the model has the ability to generate business cycle dynamics similar to those observed in the U.S. data. However, its dynamics are driven essentially by exogenous factors, not endogenous ones.