Economic Perspectives
The Macroeconomic Effects of the 2018 Bipartisan Budget Act
Jeffrey R. Campbell, Filippo Ferroni, Jonas D. M. Fisher, and Leonardo Melosi
The 2018 Bipartisan Budget Act raised government spending caps by $300 billion for fiscal years 2018 and 2019. While spending does not increase immediately, private sector investment and consumption may respond ahead of an anticipated fiscal stimulus. This Economic Perspectives article assesses the strength of this mechanism based on the private sector’s expectations.
A New “Big Data” Index of U.S. Economic Activity
Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley
The authors present a new “big data” index of U.S. economic activity that can be used to track business and inflation cycles in real time and estimate monthly real gross domestic product growth.
Bridging Between Policymakers’ and Economists’ Views on Bubbles
Senior economist Gadi Barlevy examines the gap between policymakers and researchers when it comes to asset bubbles. He describes policymakers’ key questions about asset bubbles and asks how economic models might be used to shed light on them.
Seasonal and Business Cycles of U.S. Employment
Menelik Geremew and François Gourio
The authors document several facts about the seasonality of U.S. employment, including its marked decline since the 1960s. In addition, they find there is little evidence that industries or states that are more seasonal are also more sensitive to the business cycle, contrary to some previous studies.
