Current Data

Index Suggests Economic Growth Increased in May

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.28 in May from –0.36 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from April, but three categories made negative contributions in May. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.16 in May from +0.06 in April.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.24 in May from –0.03 in April. Twenty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in May, while 57 made negative contributions. Forty-three indicators improved from April to May, while 40 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 21 made negative contributions.

• Production-related indicators contributed –0.11 to the CFNAI in May, up from –0.18 in April.
• The sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in May, up from –0.14 in April.
• Employment-related indicators contributed –0.05 to the CFNAI in May, down from –0.02 in April.
• The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.12 in May, down from –0.03 in April.

CFNAI, CFNAI-MA3, and CFNAI Diffusion for the Latest Six Months and Year-Ago Month

Note: A zero value for the CFNAI has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Notes: Shading represents periods of sustained increasing inflation. For details on the timing of these periods based on readings of core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices), see pp. 4–5 of the background information document. An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

Notes: Shading indicates official periods of recession as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Following a period of economic expansion, an increasing likelihood of a recession has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value below –0.70. Conversely, following a period of economic contraction, an increasing likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above –0.70 and a significant likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20.

Notes: Shading indicates official periods of recession as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The CFNAI Diffusion Index represents the three-month moving average of the sum of the absolute values of the weights for the underlying indicators whose contribution to the CFNAI is positive in a given month less the sum of the absolute values of the weights for those indicators whose contribution is negative or neutral in a given month. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35.