National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) Current Data
Contributions to the NFCI and ANFCI
The first two columns in the table below denote how many series of the 105 used to construct the NFCI and adjusted NFCI (ANFCI) indicated tighter-than-average or looser-than average conditions in the most recent week. The latter two columns indicate how many of the 105 indicators have tightened or loosened in the past week.
The figures below present the contribution of each indicator to the NFCI and ANFCI, which are the weighted averages of 105 measures of financial activity. The sum of the contributions will result in the current value of the index. The contributions can be used to assess which indicators have the largest impact on the current value of the index. This is done by identifying the largest positive and largest negative contributions, as highlighted below.
The contributions capture both what a given indicator reveals about current financial conditions and how related that indicator is to other measures of financial activity. While some measures on their own may indicate substantially tighter or substantially looser financial conditions, their contributions to the index may be modest if these measures receive small weights in the index. Similarly, measures that indicate only modestly tighter or modestly looser financial conditions may have larger contributions to the index if these measures receive large weights. For the construction of the indexes, the weights are calculated to capture the relative importance of each indicator in explaining the historical fluctuations in all 105 measures of financial activity.
Revisions to the NFCI and ANFCI
The history of the NFCI and the ANFCI can change from week to week depending on incoming data, data revisions and changes in the estimated weight given each financial indicator, although these changes tend to be very small. Because they include a number of monthly and quarterly financial indicators that are regularly revised, revisions to the NFCI and ANFCI will tend to be more pronounced near the beginning of each month. The ANFCI is additionally influenced by economic growth and inflation, as captured by the three-month moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3) and three-month total inflation according to the Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). As a result, it will tend to show larger revisions to its history over time.
Revisions to the ANFCI can be largely attributed to differences between incoming data on economic growth and inflation and their expected values based on the historical dynamics of the index. A downward revision to the ANFCI can be seen as stemming from one or both of the following factors: a lower than previously expected level of economic activity and a higher than previously expected rate of inflation. An upward revision to the ANFCI can be seen as stemming from one or both of the following factors: a higher than previously expected level of economic activity and a lower than previously expected rate of inflation.