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Chicago Fed Letter

Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2018 Results and 2019 Forecasts

William A. Strauss and Kelley Sarussi

According to participants in the Chicago Fed’s annual Economic Outlook Symposium (EOS), the U.S. economy is forecasted to grow at a pace somewhat above average in 2019, with inflation ticking down and the unemployment rate remaining low.

Homeowners’ Financial Protection Against Natural Disasters

Alejandro Drexler, Andrew Granato, and Richard J. Rosen

Over the past few years, many people in the U.S. have had to deal with damage to their homes from natural disasters, such as Hurricane Harvey. This article explains the different kinds of financial protection from natural catastrophes that homeowners can access from the private and public sectors.

Managing Risk in Global Financial Markets: CCP Governance, Supervisory Stress Testing, and Default Management Auctions

Nahiomy Alvarez

The second annual Symposium on OTC Derivatives was held in Shanghai on June 26, 2018. This event was cosponsored by the People’s Bank of China and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and hosted by CCP12 (The Global Association of Central Counterparties). Its three panels focused on central counterparty (CCP) governance, supervisory stress testing, and default management auctions.

The Recent Rise in Health Care Inflation

Diane Alexander

Health care services inflation was consistently at or above 3% per year in the early 2000s, declined from around 3% at the end of the 2000s to under 1% in 2015, and then rebounded to just under 2% in early 2018. The low point in 2015 was a near-historical low, with health care services price growth bottoming out at a rate not seen since 1961.

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