Research analyst David Kelley examines a broad range of leading indicators to see which ones have done better at signaling past U.S. recessions. He also uses these indicators to form a new index that outperforms other leading indexes and the Treasury yield curve at signaling historical downturns.

In mid-September 2019, there were sudden, large fluctuations in short-term interest rates. Why did this happen and what does it tell us about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy toolkit?