Michigan Retail Index

Michigan’s Declining Retail Sales Continue through the First Quarter

The three-month retail price adjustments outlook sees a record low for the past 12 months

LANSING, Mich. – Michigan Retailers Association reports that the March 2026 Michigan Retail Index score came in at 48.1, ending the first quarter of 2026 without Retail Index scores breaching the 50-point threshold. Holding steady from February’s score, this Retail Index is slightly higher than that of March 2025’s score of 44.7.

The 100-point index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. With higher numbers indicating stronger activity, index values above 50 generally indicate positive sales activity and values below 50 indicate declining trends. The seasonally-adjusted performance index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.

This seasonally-adjusted index reflects how current retail sales compare to a historical average for each month. Forty-one percent of retailers noted an increase in March sales over February, while 44% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 15% reported no change.

The promotional activity index score came in at 51.9 for March. This marks a significant drop from February’s 67.8 index score, which was a high for the past year. In contrast, nearly a 13-point jump in the inventory index score indicates well-stocked shelves after two months of negative inventory scores that started the year.

“We’re happy to have turned a corner into spring, with many of our retailers feeling ongoing impacts of winter weather,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “With warmer weather on the way, we encourage shoppers to get out and support their local retailers. Shifting just one out of every 10 of your online purchases back to a Michigan-based business helps increase jobs and boosts Michigan’s economic activity. Spring is a great time to ‘Keep your money in Michigan,’ and Buy Nearby.”

Last year, MRA’s Buy Nearby Economic Impact Study found that a 10% shift from online shopping to Michigan businesses would generate nearly 12,000 new jobs and generate $557 million in labor income.

3-Month Outlook

When asked about their sales outlook for the next three months (April through June), 76% of retailers predicted their sales would increase, 15% of retailers anticipate their sales to decline, and 9% anticipate no change. That results in an index rating of 69.7 for the 3-month outlook, a strong indicator for optimism, but another notable decline from the 3-month prediction last month at 75.7.

“The three-month sales outlook remains positive as Michigan’s retailers plan for spring and into the summer season,” Hallan shared. “The price outlook is the lowest we’ve seen since before President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs were implemented more than a year ago, which indicates that retailers may finally be feeling some relief–and their customers will, too.”

Price Outlook Plummets

The price adjustment three-month outlook score dropped 12 points in March after stabilizing in February. Since December 2025, this score has fluctuated more than 22 points, with December’s score representing the 12-month high, and this month’s score reaching a record low since 2024.

This March 2026 score is nearly twenty points lower than the score of 78.0 seen last year. In March 2025, the price outlook score increased nearly ten points following the start of tariffs, which began during the survey period in April 2025.

The promotional activities outlook score declined roughly five points in March, but remains in range with the previous year’s scores.

Breakdowns of the current, three-month, and regional results are attached.

March performance

Retailers reporting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with March 2025 results.
Survey responses: 34

Outlook for the next three months

Retailers expecting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with March 2025 results.

March sales performance and outlook for the next three months, by region

The first number indicates sales performance for the month; The second number indicates outlook for the next three months.

*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, the sum of the % of respondents indicating increase and half the % indicating no change, is calculated, and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau’s X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity. Values below 50 indicate a decrease.