Michigan Retail Index
The Michigan Retail Index is a monthly gauge of key retail activity in Michigan based on a monthly survey of Michigan Retail Association members. A new index is released by MRA on the fourth Wednesday of each month. The index tracks year-to-year increases or decreases in retail sales, inventory, prices, promotional efforts and hiring. It also indicates retailers’ forecasts in these areas for the next three months.
Download the survey's historical data.
Michigan Retailers’ July Sales Narrowly Surpass June
Retail Index Numbers More Stable in Core Summer Months
LANSING, Mich. – Michigan Retailers Association reports that July 2025’s Retail Index came in at 49.8, up slightly from June 2025’s 48.7, and also increased from July 2024’s 47.5.
The 100-point Index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. With higher numbers indicating stronger activity, Index values below 50 generally indicate negative activity. The seasonally-adjusted performance Index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.
Each month, this seasonally-adjusted Index reflects how retail sales compare to a historical average for the month. Forty-eight percent of retailers noted an increase in July sales over June, while 36% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 16% reported no change.
“Retailers are seeing some stability in the industry over the last couple of months,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “While we like to see the Retail Index above the 50-point mark, the consistency is a welcome change from the year’s volatility. Retailers’ sales remaining relatively stable from June to July brings hope for a more consistent fall season.”
3-Month Outlook
When asked about their sales outlook for the next three months (August through October), 60% of retailers predicted their sales would increase, 24% said they expect their sales to decline, and 16% anticipate no change. That results in an Index rating of 68.1 for the 3-month outlook, a notable increase from June 2025’s 61.3–a good sign as retailers head into fall.
“Retailers’ optimism is on the rise once more,” Hallan shared. “As we inch towards the holiday shopping season, just weeks away now, retailers are hopeful for a strong second half of the year. A jump in the 3-month outlook score means retailers are feeling good about what’s to come. We look forward to a holiday season supporting locally-owned retailers, starting with Buy Nearby Weekend coming up on October 3-5.”
The inventory outlook for the next three months rebounded to 58.4 after last month’s 47.6, a low point in recent months.
Buy Nearby Weekend
Buy Nearby Weekend, Michigan Retailers Association’s annual celebration of Michigan-based retailers and small businesses, takes place October 3-5, 2025. During Buy Nearby Weekend, consumers are encouraged to shop with locally-owned retailers as they kick off their holiday shopping. The 2025 Buy Nearby Economic Impact Study found that shifting just 10% of Michiganders’ online shopping to a Michigan Business would boost Michigan’s economic activity by $1.1 billion. Buy Nearby Weekend emphasizes the importance and impact of shopping small and supporting Michigan-based businesses.
Unemployment Rates
Michigan’s July 2025 unemployment rate has been preliminarily reported at 5.3%. Last July, the state’s unemployment rate came in at 4.8%. The national unemployment rate in July rose one notch to 4.2%, compared to June’s 4.1%. Last year, the national unemployment rate was also 4.2%.
Breakdowns of the current, three-month, and regional results are attached.
July performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with July 2024 results.
Survey responses: 25
| % Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | Index* | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2024 | 2025 | 2024 | 2025 | 2024 | 2025 | 2024 | |
| Sales | 48 | 47 | 36 | 40 | 16 | 13 | 49.8 | 47.5 |
| Inventory | 36 | 31 | 20 | 24 | 44 | 45 | 60.2 | 57.4 |
| Prices | 32 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 64 | 79 | 66.1 | 49.0 |
| Promotions | 12 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 88 | 72 | 59.9 | 59.4 |
| Hiring | 8 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 88 | 82 | 52.0 | 48.7 |
Outlook for the next three months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with July 2024 results.
| % Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | Index* | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2024 | 2025 | 2024 | 2025 | 2024 | 2025 | 2024 | |
| Sales | 60 | 59 | 24 | 26 | 16 | 15 | 68.1 | 67.4 |
| Inventory | 56 | 49 | 24 | 24 | 20 | 27 | 58.4 | 63.6 |
| Prices | 56 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 40 | 74 | 73.0 | 48.5 |
| Promotions | 32 | 32 | 4 | 8 | 64 | 60 | 63.4 | 61.2 |
| Hiring | 28 | 13 | 32 | 18 | 40 | 69 | 52.2 | 52.2 |
July sales performance and outlook for the next three months, by region
The first number indicates sales performance for the month; The second number indicates outlook for the next three months.
| % Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 3-Month | Current | 3-Month | Current | 3-Month | |
| North | 67 | 33 | 33 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| West | 50 | 50 | 33 | 17 | 17 | 33 |
| Central | 50 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 50 |
| East | 0 | 100 | 60 | 0 | 40 | 0 |
| Southeast | 75 | 100 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, the sum of the % of respondents indicating increase and half the % indicating no change, is calculated, and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau’s X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity. Values below 50 indicate a decrease.
