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Last Updated: 02/22/24

Michigan Retail Index

The Michigan Retail Index is a monthly gauge of key retail activity in Michigan based on a monthly survey of Michigan Retail Association members. A new index is released by MRA on the fourth Wednesday of each month. The index tracks year-to-year increases or decreases in retail sales, inventory, prices, promotional efforts and hiring. It also indicates retailers’ forecasts in these areas for the next three months.

Download the survey's historical data.

Michigan Retailers Report Low January Sales, Positive Future Outlook

LANSING, Mich. – Michigan Retailers Association today reports that January 2024 sales performed moderately, landing at 48.0 on the 100-point Retail Index. The January 2023 Retail Index came in at 53.8, indicating a 10.8 percent decrease year-over-year.

The 100-point Index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity, the higher the number, the stronger the activity. The seasonally adjusted performance Index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.

December 2023 registered 47.1 on the Index, making January’s 48 points, a technical increase with the seasonal adjustment.

Thirty percent (30%) noted an increase over the December sales, sixty-two percent (62%) of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease and 8% reported no change.

“The Retail Index numbers once again point to the ebb and flow of the industry - up one month, and down another," said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “The roller coaster ride that Michigan retailers experienced was a significant challenge brought on by outside forces like economic inflation and employment uncertainty. A majority of our retailers are predicting a sales increase over the next 90 days, a marker we can only hit if Michiganians choose to Buy Nearby."

Holiday Returns

As part of the survey, retailers were asked about their Holiday 2023 returns. 88 percent responded that Holiday 2023 returns were on par with Holiday 2022 returns.

Three-Month Optimism Rises

When asked to predict their 3-month sales outlook, sixty-three percent (63%) of retailers predicted their sales will continue to rise through April, and 20% said they expect their sales to decline. Seventeen percent (17%) anticipate no change. That results in a 63.6 Index rating, an increase from last month’s prediction Index rating of 54.7, and a slight year-over-year drop from 64.2 in 2023.

“With spring on the horizon, Michigan’s retailers are ready to help their friends and neighbors brighten their gardens, refresh their wardrobes, and find a new pair of shoes.”

Unemployment Rates

The national unemployment rate remained at 3.7% over December. Last year, the national unemployment rate was 3.4%. The unemployment rate for Michigan has not been announced for January. Last year, the rate came in at 4.3%.

Breakdowns of the current, three-month, and regional results are attached.

January performance

Retailers reporting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with January 2023 results.
Survey responses: 66

% Increased % Decreased % No Change Index*
2024 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023
Sales 3033 62 61 8 6 48.053.8
Inventory 29 28 22 33 49 39 65.456.5
Prices 17 37 9 14 74 49 58.967.1
Promotions 12 18 9 12 79 70 57.358.2
Hiring 1 6 14 28 85 66 48.443.2

Outlook for the next three months

Retailers expecting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with January 2023 results.

% Increased % Decreased % No Change Index*
2024 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023
Sales 63 61 20 19 17 20 63.664.2
Inventory 44 49 26 18 30 33 50.655.8
Prices 30 47 3 4 67 49 58.863.8
Promotions 42 47 0 4 58 49 66.0 65.9
Hiring 15 31 6 8 79 61 49.0 56.5

January sales performance and outlook for the next three months, by region

The first number indicates sales performance for the month; number in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months.

% Increased % Decreased % No Change
Current 3-Month Current 3-Month Current 3-Month
North 47 53 53 7 0 40
West 36 79 57 14 7 7
Central 18 70 73 30 9 0
East 25 50 75 25 0 25
Southeast 23 59 59 29 18 12

*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, the sum of the % of respondents indicating increase and half the % indicating no change, is calculated, and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau’s X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity. Values below 50 indicate a decrease.

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