Michigan Retail Index

Michigan Retailers’ September Index Shows Increased Sales, Stable Optimism

Retail Index Reports First Positive Sales Month Since May 2025

LANSING, Mich. – Michigan Retailers Association reports that September 2025’s Retail Index came in at 55.1, soaring more than 10 points above August’s score of 44.9, marking the first positive sales month since May 2025. The September 2025 score comes in 16.4 points higher than 2024, towering over the previous year’s score of 38.7, a low for last year.

The 100-point Index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. With higher numbers indicating stronger activity, index values above 50 generally indicate positive sales activity. The seasonally-adjusted performance index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.

This seasonally-adjusted index indicates how current retail sales compare to a historical average for each month. Forty-one percent of retailers noted an increase in September sales over August, while 39% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 20% reported no change.

“Retail sales are on the rise in Michigan,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “We’re thrilled to see the Retail Index score above the 50-point threshold again. After a summer of slow sales, this month’s 10-point jump mirrors the volatility seen in scores this spring. We’re hopeful that the holiday season will bring positive sales trends through the end of the year.”

The Michigan Retail Index scores have fluctuated more than nine points month-to-month four times in 2025. Compared to a relatively steady 2024, with only one fluctuation of more than nine points in any month.

3-Month Outlook

When asked about their sales outlook for the next three months (October through December 2025), 63% of retailers predicted their sales would increase, 31% said they expect their sales to decline, and 6% anticipate no change. That results in an index rating of 74.0 for the 3-month outlook, a slight decrease from August 2025’s 75.7 score, but still a strong sign of optimism as retailers finish 2025.

“Retailers are hopeful for a strong holiday season,” Hallan shared. “Michigan Retail’s three-month outlook is holding steady at some of the highest scores we’ve seen in some time - higher than any outlook score in all of 2024. While this year has held great uncertainty and instability for retailers, we are rallying for a solid year-end holiday sales push.”

The inventory outlook for the next three months rose again to 65.9, beating last month’s record as the highest score in 2025. This increase follows three months of notable volatility and increases, with the score fluctuating nearly 20 points from June to September.

Holiday Shopping Season Approaches

As the holiday shopping season begins, consumers are encouraged to “Keep Your Money in Michigan” by shopping at Michigan-based retailers through the holidays. Michigan is home to over 90,000 retail establishments, employing over 500,000 workers. By supporting local businesses, consumers strengthen Michigan’s economy and create more jobs in their communities.

The 2025 Buy Nearby Economic Impact Study, performed by Public Sector Consultants, found that shifting just 10% of Michiganders’ online shopping to a Michigan Business would create over 11,900 jobs, enough for 5% of Michigan’s unemployed workers. This shift would boost Michigan’s labor income by $557 million, increasing Michigan’s economic activity by $1.1 billion. Michigan Retailers Association’s Buy Nearby program emphasizes the importance and impact of shopping small and supporting Michigan-based retail.

Unemployment Rates

Michigan’s July 2025 unemployment rate has been preliminarily reported at 5.3%. Last July, the state’s unemployment rate came in at 4.8%. The national unemployment rate in July rose one notch to 4.2%, compared to June’s 4.1%. Last year, the national unemployment rate was also 4.2%.

Breakdowns of the current, three-month, and regional results are attached.

September performance

Retailers reporting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with September 2024 results.
Survey responses: 49

Outlook for the next three months

Retailers expecting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with September 2024 results.

September sales performance and outlook for the next three months, by region

The first number indicates sales performance for the month; The second number indicates outlook for the next three months.

*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, the sum of the % of respondents indicating increase and half the % indicating no change, is calculated, and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau’s X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity. Values below 50 indicate a decrease.