Michigan Retail Index
The Michigan Retail Index is a monthly gauge of key retail activity in Michigan based on a monthly survey of Michigan Retail Association members. A new index is released by MRA on the fourth Wednesday of each month. The index tracks year-to-year increases or decreases in retail sales, inventory, prices, promotional efforts and hiring. It also indicates retailers’ forecasts in these areas for the next three months.
Download the survey's historical data.
Michigan Retailers See Positive Sales Activity in November, Down Slightly from October
Holiday shopping drives a second consecutive month of positive sales activity
Michigan Retailers Association reports that November 2024’s Retail Index dropped minimally to 54.1, in comparison to October’s 54.5 on the 100-point Retail Index. November 2024 sales mark the second month in a row that the current performance outlook has indicated positive activity (over 50).
The 100-point Index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity, with higher numbers indicating stronger activity. The seasonally-adjusted performance Index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.
Forty-four percent noted an increase in November sales over October, 43% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 13% reported no change. The November 2024 numbers show a drastic improvement over last November’s index, increasing over 13 points.
“With the condensed holiday shopping season this year, and the Thanksgiving Shopping weekend being split between November and December, we’re thrilled to see strong numbers for November’s retail sales in Michigan,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “We know consumers were shopping for gifts earlier this year, which could explain October’s high. But Index numbers remain strong through November, indicating that retailers continue to see good sales as we move deeper into the holiday season.”
Retailers’ 3-Month Optimism on the Rise Into 2025
When asked to predict their sales outlook for December through February, 40% of retailers predicted their sales will continue to rise, 36% said they expect their sales to decline, and 24% anticipate no change. That results in an Index rating of 69.1, a notable increase over October’s three-month prediction of 62.3, and a positive outlook for a strong start to 2025.
“Retailers are showing continued optimism and resilience as we navigate the busy holiday season, but the importance of supporting local retail doesn’t stop when this shopping season ends,” Hallan shared. “As we enter the new year, we challenge consumers to continue supporting local retail. The new year tends to spark change, and we encourage everyone to think about what small changes they can make to support more local businesses in their area.”
Shop 3 Challenge
Michigan Retailers Association is encouraging consumers to shop with purpose this holiday season. By supporting at least three locally-owned stores while you’re holiday shopping, you can make a real difference in Michigan communities. Take the Shop 3 Challenge now and support local retail this holiday season.
Unemployment Rates
November’s unemployment rate in Michigan has not yet been announced. In October 2024 the unemployment rate was 4.7% in Michigan. Last November, the state’s unemployment rate came in at 4.1%. The national unemployment rate in November rose to 4.2% over October’s 4.1%. Last year, the national unemployment rate was 3.7%.
Breakdowns of the current, three-month, and regional results are attached.
November performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with November 2023 results.
Survey responses: 46
| % Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | Index* | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | |
| Sales | 44 | 33 | 43 | 54 | 13 | 13 | 54.1 | 41.0 |
| Inventory | 44 | 42 | 30 | 27 | 26 | 31 | 51.5 | 50.9 |
| Prices | 7 | 19 | 4 | 18 | 89 | 63 | 55.4 | 52.7 |
| Promotions | 41 | 44 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 54 | 60.9 | 64.4 |
| Hiring | 13 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 78 | 76 | 53.6 | 49.5 |
Outlook for the next three months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with November 2023 results.
| % Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | Index* | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | |
| Sales | 40 | 29 | 36 | 49 | 24 | 22 | 69.1 | 50.0 |
| Inventory | 24 | 19 | 47 | 52 | 29 | 29 | 46.3 | 40.5 |
| Prices | 33 | 27 | 13 | 14 | 54 | 59 | 70.0 | 65.5 |
| Promotions | 39 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 46 | 59 | 72.7 | 68.0 |
| Hiring | 7 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 80 | 86 | 50.9 | 50.4 |
November sales performance and outlook for the next three months, by region
The first number indicates sales performance for the month; number in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months.
| % Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 3-Month | Current | 3-Month | Current | 3-Month | |
| North | 25 | 25 | 50 | 0 | 25 | 75 |
| West | 67 | 42 | 16 | 50 | 17 | 8 |
| Central | 31 | 46 | 61 | 46 | 8 | 8 |
| East | 20 | 50 | 80 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
| Southeast | 50 | 40 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 50 |
*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, the sum of the % of respondents indicating increase and half the % indicating no change, is calculated, and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau’s X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity. Values below 50 indicate a decrease.
