Michigan Retail Index

Michigan Retailers’ Optimism Fades Following a Second Consecutive Month of Declining Sales

LANSING, Mich. – Michigan Retailers Association reports that March 2025’s Retail Index landed at 44.7, indicating a decline in sales. While this score marks a slight increase over February’s 41.5 on the 100-point scale, a consecutive second month of declining sales and scores below 50.0 is a sign of concern among Michigan’s retailers.

The 100-point Index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity, with higher numbers indicating stronger activity. The seasonally-adjusted performance Index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.

Each month, this seasonally-adjusted Index reflects how retail sales compare to a historical average for the month. Just thirty-six percent of retailers noted an increase in March sales over February, while 41% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 23% reported no change.

“Retailers continue to feel the impact of the instability surrounding tariffs,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “While some consumers are hesitant to spend due to economic uncertainty, others seek to stock up on early goods subject to tariffs. This, in combination with feeling the additional administrative burdens of navigating price changes, supply chain changes as they seek alternative suppliers, creates a complex dynamic for retailers to navigate.”

However, as sales decline, retailers report that inventory is on the rise. The Inventory Index score for March was 57.1, the highest recorded since before last year’s holiday season. Several retailers shared that they’re front-loading inventory that will be subject to tariffs and purchasing seasonal items earlier than in years past.

Northern Michigan Retailers Feel Impacts of Spring Storms

Eighty percent of Northern Michigan retailers reported a decline in sales in March. Following March’s severe storms that left power outages and damage across much of the state, many Northern Michigan retailers expressed concerns regarding restoration efforts and the long-term impacts that these storms will have on their businesses

3-Month Outlook Drops Drastically

When asked to predict their sales outlook for April through June, 60% of retailers predicted their sales would increase, 19% said they expect their sales to decline, and 21% anticipate no change. Resulting in an Index rating of 59.3, this marks the lowest 3-Month Outlook since December 2023.

“While this three-month outlook is still a positive one, retailers’ optimism is being tested by the uncertainty they’re facing. A drop of more than 8 points in a single month isn’t something to ignore.” Hallan shared. “Their resilience remains, but Michigan’s retailers have very real concerns about what the future holds for their businesses. MRA continues to fight for our members, advocating for retail-friendly policies that better our economic environment and create opportunities for businesses to thrive in Michigan.”

Unemployment Rates

Michigan’s March 2025 unemployment rate has preliminarily been reported at 5.5%, a slight increase over February's 5.4%. Last March, the state’s unemployment rate came in at 4.2%. The national unemployment rate in March rose a notch to 4.2% over February’s 4.1%. Last year, the national unemployment rate was 3.9%.

Breakdowns of the current, three-month, and regional results are attached.

March performance

Retailers reporting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with March 2024 results.
Survey responses: 58

Outlook for the next three months

Retailers expecting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with March 2024 results.

March sales performance and outlook for the next three months, by region

The first number indicates sales performance for the month; The second number indicates outlook for the next three months.

*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, the sum of the % of respondents indicating increase and half the % indicating no change, is calculated, and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau’s X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity. Values below 50 indicate a decrease.