Michigan Retail Index

Michigan Retailers’ Sales Dip Slightly in May, But Optimism is On the Rise

Retailers Adjust to Uncertainty and Predict Steadier Summer Sales

LANSING, Mich. – Michigan Retailers Association reports that May 2025’s Retail Index landed at 57.3, indicating a positive month in retail sales; however, the score decreased slightly from April.

The 100-point Index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity, with higher numbers indicating stronger activity. The seasonally-adjusted performance Index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.

Each month, this seasonally-adjusted Index reflects how retail sales compare to a historical average for the month. Fifty-one percent of retailers noted an increase in May sales over April, while 30% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 19% reported no change.

Compared to May 2024, this year’s score rose nearly 10 points. Last year, Retail Index scores did not cross the 50-point threshold from January through September, indicating a rough season for retail sales. However, this year’s index scores have been more volatile.

“Twice this year, we’ve seen the Retail Index swing more than 15 points from one month to the next. With May’s score only marking a two-point dip from April, some stability in scores has returned,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “The volatility we’ve seen in this year’s Retail Index scores is a clear indicator of the uncertainty business owners are facing today. Now more than ever, it’s important for consumers to support Michigan’s retailers and the small business community.”

Michigan Retailers Association encourages consumers to shift out-of-state and e-commerce purchases to Michigan-based retailers. Shifting just 10% of those purchases back to a Michigan business would generate more than 15,000 new jobs across the state, according to the 2024 annual Buy Nearby economic study, conducted by MRA and Public Sector Consultants.

3-Month Outlook Sees Improvement

When asked about their sales outlook for the summer months (June through August), 57% of retailers predicted their sales would increase, 24% said they expect their sales to decline, and 19% anticipate no change. Resulting in an Index rating of 63.6, the optimism score increased for the second month in a row with a moderate bump over April’s Index score of 59.9.

Following a nearly 10-point drop in March, which marked the lowest 3-month optimism score since 2023, May’s increase to 63.6 brings the score back in line with what was seen for the majority of 2024. Prior to this year’s early instability, the 3-month outlook had remained between 62.3 and 72.5 for fourteen consecutive months.

“It’s great to see retailers’ optimism returning after a rough spring. An increase in the 3-month outlook for a second month brings hope that Michigan’s Retailers will see a prosperous summer.” Hallan shared. “Travel and tourism can be big drivers for retail across our state, especially in the summer months. Retailers are optimistic for a season of strong sales and support from Michigan consumers.”

Unemployment Rates

Michigan’s May 2025 unemployment rate has yet to be reported. April’s rate was preliminarily reported at 5.5%, the same rate as March. Last May, the state’s unemployment rate came in at 4.5%. The national unemployment rate in May remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. Last year, the national unemployment rate was 4.0%.

Breakdowns of the current, three-month, and regional results are attached.

May performance

Retailers reporting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with May 2024 results. Survey responses: 37

Outlook for the next three months

Retailers expecting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with May 2024 results.

April sales performance and outlook for the next three months, by region

The first number indicates sales performance for the month; The second number indicates outlook for the next three months.

*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, the sum of the % of respondents indicating increase and half the % indicating no change, is calculated, and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau’s X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity. Values below 50 indicate a decrease.