Michigan Retail Index
The Michigan Retail Index is a monthly gauge of key retail activity in Michigan based on a monthly survey of Michigan Retail Association members. A new index is released by MRA on the fourth Wednesday of each month. The index tracks year-to-year increases or decreases in retail sales, inventory, prices, promotional efforts and hiring. It also indicates retailers’ forecasts in these areas for the next three months.
Download the survey's historical data.
Michigan Retailers Report Low January Sales, Positive Future Outlook
LANSING, Mich. – Michigan Retailers Association today reports that January 2024 sales performed moderately, landing at 48.0 on the 100-point Retail Index. The January 2023 Retail Index came in at 53.8, indicating a 10.8 percent decrease year-over-year.
The 100-point Index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity, the higher the number, the stronger the activity. The seasonally adjusted performance Index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.
December 2023 registered 47.1 on the Index, making January’s 48 points, a technical increase with the seasonal adjustment.
Thirty percent (30%) noted an increase over the December sales, sixty-two percent (62%) of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease and 8% reported no change.
“The Retail Index numbers once again point to the ebb and flow of the industry - up one month, and down another," said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “The roller coaster ride that Michigan retailers experienced was a significant challenge brought on by outside forces like economic inflation and employment uncertainty. A majority of our retailers are predicting a sales increase over the next 90 days, a marker we can only hit if Michiganians choose to Buy Nearby."
Holiday Returns
As part of the survey, retailers were asked about their Holiday 2023 returns. 88 percent responded that Holiday 2023 returns were on par with Holiday 2022 returns.
Three-Month Optimism Rises
When asked to predict their 3-month sales outlook, sixty-three percent (63%) of retailers predicted their sales will continue to rise through April, and 20% said they expect their sales to decline. Seventeen percent (17%) anticipate no change. That results in a 63.6 Index rating, an increase from last month’s prediction Index rating of 54.7, and a slight year-over-year drop from 64.2 in 2023.
“With spring on the horizon, Michigan’s retailers are ready to help their friends and neighbors brighten their gardens, refresh their wardrobes, and find a new pair of shoes.”
Unemployment Rates
The national unemployment rate remained at 3.7% over December. Last year, the national unemployment rate was 3.4%. The unemployment rate for Michigan has not been announced for January. Last year, the rate came in at 4.3%.
Breakdowns of the current, three-month, and regional results are attached.
January performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with January 2023 results.
Survey responses: 66
% Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | Index* | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Sales | 30 | 33 | 62 | 61 | 8 | 6 | 48.0 | 53.8 |
Inventory | 29 | 28 | 22 | 33 | 49 | 39 | 65.4 | 56.5 |
Prices | 17 | 37 | 9 | 14 | 74 | 49 | 58.9 | 67.1 |
Promotions | 12 | 18 | 9 | 12 | 79 | 70 | 57.3 | 58.2 |
Hiring | 1 | 6 | 14 | 28 | 85 | 66 | 48.4 | 43.2 |
Outlook for the next three months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with January 2023 results.
% Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | Index* | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Sales | 63 | 61 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 20 | 63.6 | 64.2 |
Inventory | 44 | 49 | 26 | 18 | 30 | 33 | 50.6 | 55.8 |
Prices | 30 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 67 | 49 | 58.8 | 63.8 |
Promotions | 42 | 47 | 0 | 4 | 58 | 49 | 66.0 | 65.9 |
Hiring | 15 | 31 | 6 | 8 | 79 | 61 | 49.0 | 56.5 |
January sales performance and outlook for the next three months, by region
The first number indicates sales performance for the month; number in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months.
% Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current | 3-Month | Current | 3-Month | Current | 3-Month | |
North | 47 | 53 | 53 | 7 | 0 | 40 |
West | 36 | 79 | 57 | 14 | 7 | 7 |
Central | 18 | 70 | 73 | 30 | 9 | 0 |
East | 25 | 50 | 75 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
Southeast | 23 | 59 | 59 | 29 | 18 | 12 |
*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, the sum of the % of respondents indicating increase and half the % indicating no change, is calculated, and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau’s X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity. Values below 50 indicate a decrease.