Michigan Retail Index

Michigan Retailers’ October Index Remains Positive to Kick off the Holiday Season

Inventory Outlook Reaches a Record High for 2025

LANSING, Mich. – Michigan Retailers Association reports that October 2025’s Michigan Retail Index score came in at 51.2, indicating a positive sales month, but a slight dip from September’s 55.1. This year’s score remains fairly consistent with previous October scores, with last year’s recorded at 54.1.

The 100-point Index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. With higher numbers indicating stronger activity, index values above 50 generally indicate positive sales activity. The seasonally-adjusted performance index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.

This seasonally-adjusted index indicates how current retail sales compare to a historical average for each month. Forty-six percent of retailers noted an increase in October sales over September, while 39% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 15% reported no change.

“Two consecutive months of positive Retail Index scores brings us hope for a strong year-end,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “The industry has faced significant turbulence this year, but retailers are resilient. We encourage shoppers to be extra intentional this holiday season, to keep as much money in their local community as possible. Every single purchase at a Michigan-owned retailer makes an impact on our state’s economy.”

3-Month Outlook

When asked about their sales outlook for the next three months (November 2025 through January 2026), 51% of retailers predicted their sales would increase, 24% said they expect their sales to decline, and 25% anticipate no change. That results in an index rating of 65.4 for the 3-month outlook, nearly a 10-point decrease from September 2025’s score of 74.0, but still a strong, positive sign as retailers finish 2025 and begin 2026.

“The Retail Index 3-month outlook remains positive, despite a notable drop after the past two months’ highs for the year,” Hallan shared. “Michigan’s retailers continually show optimism despite facing ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs, consumer price sensitivity, and increasing costs. October’s outlook score of 65.4 brings us closer to past years’ scores, and indicates that retailers anticipate a strong holiday season to close out the year.”

The inventory outlook for the next three months rose again to 69.2, beating last month’s record as the new highest score in 2025, as well as all of 2024. This marks four consecutive months of increases, after notable instability mid-year. Up more than twenty points from June’s low of 47.6, the October 3-month inventory outlook is an indicator that retailers will have well-stocked shelves coming into the new year.

Shop 3 Challenge, Holiday Edition

Michigan Retailers Association encourages shoppers to be intentional this holiday season by seeking out Michigan-owned retailers and small businesses to support. The “Shop 3 Challenge” encourages shoppers to visit at least three locally-owned retailers to purchase holiday gifts. Michigan is home to over 90,000 retail establishments, employing over 500,000 workers, making it easy to find a Michigan-based business to support.

This year, MRA is holding a “Punch Card Contest” with a $500 prize for one lucky shopper. Shoppers can download a punch card, visit three Michigan-owned retailers for a stamp or initial, and enter to win at retailers.com/shop3challenge2025. The contest runs during the Thanksgiving weekend, Nov. 28-30, 2025.

Michigan Monday

Returning for its second year, “Michigan Monday” shines a light on Michigan-based e-commerce. MRA has published a list of member businesses that offer online shopping for consumers to reference on Cyber Monday, the annual holiday celebrating online shopping.

The 2025 Buy Nearby Economic Impact Study, performed by Public Sector Consultants, found that around 20% of Michigan’s total retail sales were remote, roughly 4% higher than the national average. MRA’s “Michigan Monday” encourages shoppers to “Keep Your Money in Michigan®” by shopping from Michigan-based websites while looking for holiday deals. To view the list, visit retailers.com/michigan-monday-2025.

National Holiday Sales Prediction

The National Retail Federation’s annual holiday forecast projects November and December retail sales to reach an estimated $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion, up from last year’s $976.1 billion. The NRF’s consumer survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, shows shoppers expect to spend an average of $890.49 per person on gifts, food, décor and other holiday items. That amount is the second-highest in the survey’s 23-year history and falls just short of last year’s $901.99 record.

Breakdowns of the current, three-month, and regional results are attached.

October performance

Retailers reporting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with October 2024 results.
Survey responses: 41

Outlook for the next three months

Retailers expecting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with October 2024 results.

October sales performance and outlook for the next three months, by region

The first number indicates sales performance for the month; The second number indicates outlook for the next three months.

*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, the sum of the % of respondents indicating increase and half the % indicating no change, is calculated, and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau’s X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity. Values below 50 indicate a decrease.