Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?
Measured productivity growth increased substantially during the second half of the 1990s. This
paper examines whether this increase owes to an increase in the rate of technological change or
whether it can be explained by non-technological factors relating to factor utilization, factor
accumulation, or returns to scale. It finds that the recent increase in productivity growth does
appear to arise from an increase in technological change. Cyclical utilization raised measured
productivity growth relative to technology growth in the first part of the expansion, but lowered
it subsequently. Factor adjustment leads to a steady-state understatement of technology growth
by measured productivity growth. The understatement was greater in the second half of the
expansion than the first. Changes in the distribution of inputs across industries with different
returns to scale lead to a modest understatement in the growth in technology. Although the
increase technological change is most pronounced in durable manufacturing, technological
change also increased outside of manufacturing.