News Release

Recent editions of Chicago Fed Letter highlight the following research:

• While the U.S. economy has been expanding for the past two years, it hasn't felt all that robust. What can we expect in 2004? A recent Chicago Fed symposium brought economists from academia and business together to discuss the outlook for 2004 and is summarized by Chicago Fed Senior Economist William Strauss and Assistant Economist Avinash Kaza in the February 2004 Special Issue of the Chicago Fed Letter. Titled "Expansion picks up steam," Strauss and Kaza provide a summary of the median forecast of symposium participants that indicates economic expansion will continue into 2004.

• In the March 2004 issue, titled "Comrades or competitors? On trade relationships between China and emerging Asia," Chicago Fed Senior Economist John Fernald and International Monetary Fund researcher Prakash Loungani discuss whether trade relationships among Asian economies are better described as complementary or competitive.

• In a March 2004 special issue, Chicago Fed Senior Economist Richard H. Mattoon summarizes a recent Chicago Fed and National Tax Association conference that examined the state and local budget situation, particularly Seventh Federal Reserve District states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Titled "State budgets and the economy,"  the summary highlights that these states have pursued different fiscal policies over the last decade and have relied on different tax structures to pay for government, yet all face significant budget shortfalls.

• In another March 2004 special issue, "Challenges to the U.S. auto industry,"  Chicago Fed Senior Economist Thomas Klier summarizes a recent conference that brought together industry experts and economists to discuss the challenges facing this industry concentrated in the Midwest. Klier notes that there was little doubt among conference attendees that Michigan would remain the hub of this industry for some time. However, the key players, their modes of operation, and their locations are continuing to shift.

• The February 2004 issue, titled "Immigrant financial market participation: Defining the research questions,"  provides an overview of key topics related to immigrant participation in financial markets. The article, written by Chicago Fed Research Analyst Robin Newberger, New York Fed Senior Economist Sherrie L. W. Rhine, and Chicago Fed Research Analyst Shirley Chiu, also provides a preview of a national conference taking place in April 2004 that aims to encourage policy-oriented research and to identify public-private partnerships that can help bring the foreign born into U.S. financial markets.

Chicago Fed Letter is published monthly by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The views expressed are the authors' and are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System. Articles may be reprinted if the source is credited and the Research Department is provided with copies of the reprints.

Chicago Fed Letter is available without charge from the Public Information Center, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, P.O. Box 834, Chicago, Illinois 60690-0834, tel. (312)322-5111 or fax (312)322-5515.