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Chicago Fed National Activity Index, July 2006
CFNAI Indicates Economic Growth Above Trend in June

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.34 in June, up from –0.14 in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators (see sidebar) made positive contributions to the index. The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was +0.11 in June, the same as in May. A CFNAI-MA3 reading above zero is associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.11 in June suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend. With regard to inflation, a CFNAI-MA3 value above zero indicates the potential for inflationary pressures over the coming year.

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