Tracking Holiday Spending with CARTS 2.2 and a New Dashboard

Chicago Fed Insights, December 2024

By Scott A. Brave , Ross Cole , Katherine Jolley , Ezra Karger

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics Financial Economics Industrial Organization

In this Chicago Fed Insights article, we provide an update on the Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS). CARTS is a summary measure of multiple high-frequency consumer spending indicators that aims to improve on the timeliness and reliability of traditional measures of U.S. retail spending.

To achieve these goals, CARTS produces weekly indexes of retail sales and prices that are dynamically benchmarked to the U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly measure of retail & food services sales excluding motor vehicles & parts (ex. auto) and, until recently (as we will explain), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) monthly measure of retail prices for the same category of spending.

Here, we summarize the ongoing improvements to these indexes made in CARTS 2.2 and present a new dashboard (see figure 1). We explain each of the panels of the dashboard in greater detail in what follows. The preliminary CARTS release for November 2024 suggests that both retail & food services sales and prices ex. auto increased from October on a seasonally adjusted basis. Final CARTS results for November including the Thanksgiving period are to be released on December 16, 2024.

1. CARTS 2.2 dashboard

Figure 1 features the CARTS dashboard, which contains six figures. Each figure is described in more detail in the main text and in the alternative text of figures 2 through 7. — Note: CARTS stands for the Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary.
Sources: Authors’ calculations based on data from Haver Analytics, Adobe Analytics, Advan Research, Bloomberg Second Measure, Consumer Edge, Facteus, Morning Consult, Numerator, SafeGraph, and State Street PriceStats.

Updates in CARTS 2.2

The key feature of CARTS is its ability to combine high-frequency indicators with monthly data on retail & food services sales and prices ex. auto in a time-consistent fashion. The resulting Weekly Index of Retail Trade and Weekly Index of Retail Prices both match the available data from the Census Bureau and BEA when aggregated to monthly frequencies and provide initial estimates of these data ahead of new monthly data releases from these agencies.

The Census Bureau’s monthly data for retail sales are not adjusted for changes over time in the prices of retail goods and services. However, up until recently, the price deflator for retail sales produced by the BEA could be used to convert monthly retail sales into an inflation-adjusted measure. The dynamic benchmarking used in CARTS for the Weekly Index of Retail Sales and the Weekly Index of Retail Prices ensures that the latter can be used as a price deflator for the former at the weekly frequency as well.

This feature of CARTS allows its users to construct both current and constant dollar estimates of weekly sales such as those shown in figure 2.¹ In July 2024, the BEA stopped publishing the chain-weighted price index for retail & food services sales ex. auto that had been used as a benchmark for the Weekly Index of Retail Prices. This means that the inflation-adjusted estimates after May 2024 are no longer benchmarked in CARTS.

2. Retail & food services sales ex. auto, SAMR

Figure 2 displays weekly retail & food services sales excluding motor vehicles and parts at a seasonally adjusted monthly rate from January 2018 through November 2024. There are two lines: a blue line in current millions of U.S. dollars (the CARTS Weekly Index of Retail Trade) and a red line in constant millions of 2017 U.S. dollars (the CARTS Weekly Index of Retail Trade inflation-adjusted using the CARTS Weekly Index of Retail Prices). The lines follow a similar upward trend and, when aggregated to a monthly frequency, match benchmark data for retail sales and prices produced by the U.S. Census Bureau (sales) and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (prices). — Note: These are weekly current and constant dollar retail & food services sales ex. auto estimates at seasonally adjusted monthly rates (SAMR) from CARTS (Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary).
Sources: Authors’ calculations based on data from Haver Analytics, Adobe Analytics, Advan Research, Bloomberg Second Measure, Consumer Edge, Facteus, Morning Consult, Numerator, SafeGraph, and State Street PriceStats.

To compensate for the loss of the BEA data series and restore a sense of dynamic benchmarking for prices, CARTS 2.2 has added to the econometric model² used to construct the Weekly Index of Retail Prices a monthly consumer price index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)—namely, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for commodities excluding motor vehicles and parts.³

As figure 3 demonstrates, the history of this BLS price index closely tracks that of the similar BEA price index. While CARTS 2.2 continues to benchmark the history of the Weekly Index of Retail Prices to the now-discontinued BEA price index through May 2024, its construction from June 2024 onward is instead disciplined by its strong correlation with the BLS price index. In this way, CARTS continues to present a representative weekly snapshot of retail & food services prices ex. auto.

3. Retail & food services prices ex. auto, SA y/y % chg.

Figure 3 displays monthly retail & food services prices excluding motor vehicles and parts as a seasonally adjusted year-over-year percent change from January 2019 through November 2024. There are two lines: a blue line for the chain-weighted price index excluding motor vehicles and parts from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and a red line for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for commodities excluding motor vehicles and parts from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The blue and red lines follow each other closely until the blue line ends in May 2024, after which the BEA index’s data are no longer available (the BEA officially discontinued this index in July 2024). Then, starting in June 2024, there are black dots representing the CARTS Prices Nowcasts constructed by taking the monthly average of the Weekly Index of Retail Prices. The black dots are on top of the red line, indicating that the CARTS Prices Nowcasts are strongly correlated with the CPI for commodities excluding motor vehicles and parts. — Notes: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) monthly chain-weighted price index for retail & food services prices ex. auto was discontinued in July 2024, which meant that no further data for this index was available after May 2024. The related monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for this category of spending is constructed from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI for commodities excluding motor vehicles and parts. CARTS stands for the Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary; the CARTS Nowcast is the monthly average of the Weekly Index of Retail Prices from June 2024 onward. All three indexes in the figure have been transformed to seasonally adjusted (SA) year-over-year (y/y) percent changes (% chg.).
Sources: Authors’ calculations based on data from Haver Analytics, Adobe Analytics, and State Street PriceStats.

Tracking holiday spending with CARTS 2.2

When the Census Bureau data are not yet available, CARTS contains a projection or “nowcast” of these data. Figure 4 summarizes the CARTS Nowcasts for sales and prices for November 2024 in gauge plots showing where the nowcasts fall in relation to historical values since 2018.

4. Latest CARTS Nowcasts

Figure 4 has two panels displaying gauge plots for retail & food services sales and prices excluding motor vehicles and parts. The gauge plots have a red marker for where the current CARTS Nowcasts fall in relation to historical values of U.S. Census Bureau data for sales and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data for prices. Markers are shown by quartile, highlighting the minimum (0th percentile), median (50th percentile), and maximum (100th percentile) values of month-over-month percent changes in sales and prices since 2018. In the center of the plot, the current CARTS Nowcast value for November is featured in seasonally adjusted monthly percent change units, which is +0.4% for sales and +0.2% for prices. On the left gauge plot, the red indicator is near the 50th percentile mark, indicating that the November CARTS Sales Nowcast of 0.4% is higher than 50% of historical Census Bureau values for retail sales since 2018. On the right gauge plot, the red indicator is also near the 50th percentile mark, indicating that the November CARTS Prices Nowcast of 0.2% is higher than 50% of historical BEA values for retail prices since 2018. — Note: CARTS stands for the Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary. The gauge plots depict the latest CARTS Nowcasts for retail & food services sales and prices ex. auto in relation to historical percentiles for the seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month (m/m) percent changes (% chg.) in each since 2018. Markers are shown above by quartile, highlighting the minimum (0th percentile), median (50th percentile), and maximum (100th percentile) values.
Sources: Authors’ calculations based on data from Haver Analytics, Adobe Analytics, Advan Research, Bloomberg Second Measure, Consumer Edge, Facteus, Morning Consult, Numerator, SafeGraph, and State Street PriceStats.

Sales are projected to increase 0.4% in November from the previous month, and prices are projected to increase 0.2%. As such, the CARTS Nowcasts would fall near the median month-over-month percent changes in sales and prices for retail & food services ex. auto since 2018. In terms of sales, the CARTS Nowcast for November 2024 is also somewhat higher than growth in retail & food services sales ex. auto in October (see figure 5).

5. Retail & food services sales ex. auto, SA m/m % chg.

Figure 5 shows a blue line representing the monthly U.S. Census Bureau data series for retail & food services sales excluding motor vehicles and parts in seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent changes. The line stops in October 2024 where there is a vertical dashed line, indicating that the data point beyond it is a forecast. The black dot beyond that dashed vertical line represents the CARTS Sales Nowcast for November 2024. The black dot is above the October 2024 value, indicating an increase in monthly sales growth. — Notes: Census indicates that the data are from the U.S. Census Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey. CARTS stands for the Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary; the CARTS Nowcast is the latest projection of the Census Bureau’s data (the data point plotted after the dashed vertical black line). All data are shown as seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month (m/m) percent changes (% chg.).
Sources: Authors’ calculations based on data from Haver Analytics, Adobe Analytics, Advan Research, Bloomberg Second Measure, Consumer Edge, Facteus, Morning Consult, Numerator, SafeGraph, and State Street PriceStats.

The underlying contributions to the CARTS Sales Nowcast for November suggest that the increase in retail & food services sales ex. auto was driven primarily by high-frequency data on consumer transactions, followed by high-frequency foot traffic & sentiment indicators and then by momentum from past values of the Census Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey (see figure 6).

6. CARTS Sales Nowcast contributions, by data sources, SA m/m % chg.

Figure 6 shows a horizontal bar chart with three bars (blue, red, and black). Each of the bars represents the contribution of certain data sources to the CARTS Nowcast for the month-over-month percent change in November retail & food services sales excluding motor vehicles and parts. The blue bar represents consumer transaction data compiled from Bloomberg Second Measure, Consumer Edge, Facteus, Numerator, and SafeGraph. The red bar represents foot traffic & sentiment data, which are compiled from Advan Research, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and Morning Consult. The black bar represents U.S. Census Bureau data from previously released values of its Monthly Retail Trade Survey. The blue bar is the largest positive contributor in November and larger than the positive red and black bars, indicating that the CARTS Sales Nowcast for November (the sum of the three bars) was driven primarily by the transactions data, followed by the foot traffic & sentiment data and then by the historical Census Bureau data. — Notes: CARTS stands for the Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary. The CARTS Sales Nowcast is for the seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month (m/m) percent change (% chg.) in retail & food services sales ex. auto. The transactions category indicates the contribution to the latest CARTS Sales Nowcast from consumer transactions data. The foot traffic & sentiment category indicates the contribution to the latest CARTS Sales Nowcast from foot traffic, gas sales, and consumer sentiment data. The Census category indicates the contribution to the latest CARTS Sales Nowcast from previously released values of the U.S. Census Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey.
Sources: Authors’ calculations based on transactions data from Bloomberg Second Measure, Consumer Edge, Facteus, Numerator, and SafeGraph; foot traffic & sentiment data from Advan Research, the U.S. Energy Information Administration from Haver Analytics, and Morning Consult; and retail sales data from the U.S. Census Bureau from Haver Analytics.

To put the decomposition shown in figure 6 into perspective, it is helpful to compare both the Census Bureau's monthly retail sales data and the CARTS Sales Nowcast with other measures of consumer transactions. In figure 7, we plot both against the Visa Spending Momentum Index (SMI). As the SMI aims to measure differences in the number of accounts increasing versus decreasing spending from a year ago, we transform the Census Bureau data and CARTS Sales Nowcast to year-over-year percent changes to match this timing.

7. Retail & food services sales ex. auto, SA y/y % chg.

Figure 7 has two lines: a blue line representing the U.S. Census Bureau data series for retail & food services sales excluding motor vehicles and parts in seasonally adjusted year-over-year percent changes and a red line representing the Visa Spending Momentum Index (SMI) from 2019 through 2024. A Visa SMI value of zero denotes an equal number of accounts increasing and decreasing spending from a year ago. The SMI follows a similar pattern to the Census Bureau data in the figure. There is also a black dot at November 2024 representing the November CARTS Sales Nowcast for the Census Bureau data. The black dot is a bit above the blue line, indicating that the November CARTS Sales Nowcast points to an increase in annual sales growth. — * A Visa Spending Momentum Index (SMI) value of zero denotes an equal number of accounts increasing and decreasing spending from a year ago.
Notes: Census indicates the U.S. Census Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey. CARTS stands for the Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary; the CARTS Nowcast is the monthly average of the Weekly Index of Retail Trade. Both the Census Bureau and CARTS indexes are shown as seasonally adjusted (SA) year-over-year (y/y) percent changes (% chg.).
Sources: Authors’ calculations based on data from Haver Analytics, Advan Research, Bloomberg Second Measure, Consumer Edge, Facteus, Morning Consult, Numerator, and SafeGraph.

The Visa index has indicated declining momentum in consumer spending for some time now, with the number of accounts with decreased spending exceeding those with increased spending. Year-over-year growth in actual retail sales has largely followed this pattern, but it has remained positive. The CARTS Nowcast for year-over-year growth in retail & food services sales ex. auto at 3.1% in November points to slightly more momentum in retail spending going into the holiday shopping season.

Conclusion

While it is still early in the 2024 holiday season, the preliminary CARTS release for November suggests that both retail & food services sales and prices ex. auto increased on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. Final CARTS data for November 2024 including the Thanksgiving period are scheduled to be released on December 16, 2024. Additional details on CARTS are available online.

Notes

¹ To construct constant dollar sales, divide the Weekly Index of Retail Trade by the Weekly Index of Retail Prices after the latter index has been divided by 100.

² The Weekly Index of Retail Prices is constructed from a mixed-frequency vector autoregression that includes the monthly price indexes from the BEA and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), weekly gas prices from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and indexes of online prices from State Street PriceStats (weekly) and Adobe Analytics (monthly).

³ More specifically, we remove the transportation less motor fuels subcomponent from the aggregate CPI for commodities.

Opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.