Seasonal monetary policy
It is widely known that economic activity does not
evolve smoothly over the course of a year, but that it
varies systematically across the different seasons. This
is not surprising: Weather is an important factor in
many sectors of production. While agriculture is an
obvious example, construction is another important
activity affected by weather: No doubt, it is much
harder to build a house in Chicago during the winter
months than during the rest of the year. Institutional
arrangements also lead to seasonal fluctuations in
economic activity. For instance, a disproportionate
fraction of American families take vacations during
the summer months partly because they coincide with
school recess. Another example is Christmas, which
sharply increases retail activity during the last month
of the year. While most modern discussion about
monetary policy centers on what is the best policy to
follow over booms and recessions, very little is said
about what is the best policy to follow across different
seasons. However, this has not always been the
case. The evolution of U.S. monetary institutions and,
in particular, the creation of the Federal Reserve System
have been partly guided by this discussion.