Earnings Inequality and the Business Cycle
Economists have long viewed recessions as contributing to increasing inequality. However,
this conclusion is largely based on data from a period in which inequality was increasing
over time. This paper examines the connection between long-run trends and cyclical variation
in earnings inequality. We develop a model in which cyclical and trend inequality are
related, and find that in our model, recessions tend to amplify long-run trends, i.e. they
involve more rapidly increasing inequality more when long-run inequality is increasing, and
more rapidly decreasing inequality when long-run inequality is decreasing. In support of this
prediction, we present evidence that during the first half of the 20th Century when earnings
inequality was generally declining, earnings disparities indeed appeared to fall more rapidly
in downturns, at least among workers at the top of the earnings distribution.