Why are safeguards needed in a trade agreement?
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the use of safeguards
in a trade agreement. It then analyzes the available data on the use of safeguards by WTO
members to examine two hypotheses in the economics literature, that safeguards improve
welfare by facilitating tariff reductions and that safeguards improve welfare by providing
insurance against adverse economic shocks. I find that countries which undertook larger tariff
reductions during the Uruguay Round conducted more safeguards investigations after the
WTO was established. This suggests that the presence of a safeguard clause in the WTO
agreement may have facilitated greater tariff reductions during the Uruguay Round. I find no
evidence that safeguards are used more intensively by countries exposed to more aggregate
economic uncertainty. It thus seems unlikely that safeguards provide insurance against
aggregate economic shocks.