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Working Papers, No. 2022-46, October 2022 Crossref
The Employment Consequences of Anti-Dumping Tariffs: Lessons from Brazil

Can anti-dumping tariffs increase employment? We compile data on all antidumping (AD) investigations in Brazil matching it to firm-level administrative employment information. Using difference-in-differences, we find that an AD tariff decreases imports and increases employment in the protected sector. Moreover, downstream firms decrease employment, while upstream ones are not affected. To quantify the aggregate effect of these tariffs, we build a model with international trade, input-output linkages, and labor force participation. We show that the Brazilian AD policy increased employment by 0.06%, but decreased welfare by 2.4%. Using tariffs, the government can increase employment by as much as 2.8%.


Working papers are not edited, and all opinions and errors are the responsibility of the author(s). The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.

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