Gustavo de Souza

Economist

About Bank Publications Working Papers Selected External Publications

About

Gustavo de Souza is an economist in the economic research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. In his research, he uses micro-data to estimate macroeconomic models and derive policy implications. His research interests are in macroeconomics, labor economics, development, and public finance.

De Souza received a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago in 2021. He holds an M.Sc. in economics from the Getulio Vargas Foundation.

Bank Publications

Recent Publications

AI in the Oﬀice and the Factory

Gustavo de Souza | Chicago Fed Insights | 2025 | November

Concentrated Growth: The Role of the IT Sector

Joel David, Gustavo de Souza, Adalyn Schommer | Chicago Fed Letter | 2025 | No. 515 | November Download

Analyzing the Impact of Programming Skills on Career Outcomes of Software Engineers

Gustavo de Souza, Jack Mannion | Chicago Fed Insights | 2025 | February

Chicago Fed Insights

AI in the Oﬀice and the Factory

Gustavo de Souza | 2025 | November

Analyzing the Impact of Programming Skills on Career Outcomes of Software Engineers

Gustavo de Souza, Jack Mannion | 2025 | February

Chicago Fed Letter

Concentrated Growth: The Role of the IT Sector

Joel David, Gustavo de Souza, Adalyn Schommer | 2025 | No. 515 | November Download

Working papers

Working Papers

Artificial Intelligence in the Office and the Factory: Evidence from Administrative Software Registry Data

Gustavo de Souza | 2025 | No. 2025-11 | July Download

How Demand for New Skills Affects Wage Inequality: The Case of Software Programmers

Gustavo de Souza, Jack Mannion, Jacob S. Herbstman | 2024 | No. 2024-19 | September Download

More Trade, Less Diffusion: Technology Transfers and the Dynamic Effects of Import Liberalization

Gustavo de Souza, Ruben Gaetani, Martí Mestieri | 2024 | No. 2024-20 | September Download

Robots, Tools, and Jobs: Evidence from Brazilian Labor Markets

Gustavo de Souza, Haishi Li | 2023 | No. 2023-42 | November Download

R&D Subsidy and Import Substitution: Growing in the Shadow of Protection

Gustavo de Souza, Gabriel Garber | 2023 | No. 2023-37 | September Download

Employment and Welfare Effects of the Quota for Disabled Workers in Brazil

Gustavo de Souza | 2023 | No. 2023-11 | March Download

The Labor Market Consequences of Appropriate Technology

Gustavo de Souza | 2022 | No. 2022-53 | November Download

(Trade) War and Peace: How to Impose International Trade Sanctions

Gustavo de Souza, Naiyuan Hu, Haishi Li, Yuan Mei | 2022 | No. 2022-49 | October Download

It's Good Weather for More Government: The Effect of Weather on Fiscal Policy

Gustavo de Souza | 2022 | No. 2022-48 | October Download

On the Political and Economic Determinants of Redistribution: Economic Gains, Ideological Gains, or Institutions?

Gustavo de Souza | 2022 | No. 2022-47 | October Download

Optimal Unemployment Insurance Requirements

Gustavo de Souza, André Victor D. Luduvice | 2022 | No. 2022-45 | October Download

The Employment Consequences of Anti-Dumping Tariffs: Lessons from Brazil

Gustavo de Souza, Haishi Li | 2022 | No. 2022-46 | October Download

Selected External Publications

Acceptances in Academic Journals and Books

de Souza, Gustavo, Naiyuan Hu, Haishi Li, and Yuan Mei, 2024, ““(Trade) War and peace: How to impose international trade sanctions,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 146, 103572, September. 20240901050000