Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

"Real-time" historical data for the CFNAI are available in their entirety as they were available at the time of release. Learn more and download these historical data files.


CFNAI Historical (Real-time) Data

The CFNAI provides useful information on the current and future course of U.S. economic activity and inflation. A caveat in all statistical investigations of postwar business and inflation cycles is the relatively small number of recessions and periods of sustained increasing inflation. Therefore, it is important to keep in mind that the threshold values used to indicate the increasing likelihood of recessions and periods of sustained increasing inflation have been identified with the benefit of hindsight.

In response to the demand for additional research on "real-time" economic measures, we have begun releasing the history of the CFNAI in its entirety as it was originally made available at the time of release. For more information on the history of the CFNAI and its relation to business and inflation cycles, please see the Background Information available on this website. Finally, evaluation of a real-time indicator like the CFNAI requires the careful tracking of data revisions. The table below provides a sense of the extent to which data revisions have historically influenced the index.

Download Historical Data

2001-2011 XLSX
2012-2018 XLSX
2019-present XLSX

Key:

CFMYYYY – CFNAI
CF3MYYYY – CFNAI-MA3
DIFFMYYYY – CFNAI Diffusion Index
PIMYYYY – Production & Income
EUHMYYYY – Employment, Unemployment & Hours
CHMYYYY – Personal Consumption & Housing
SOIMYYYY – Sales, Orders & Inventories
"MYYYY" refers to data month and year.

Median Absolute Values of Month-to-Month Revisions

Note: T denotes the last month of the index at the time of release.
Series T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5
CFNAI 0.10 0.09 0.05 0.02 0.02
P&I 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01
EU&H 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
C&H 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
SO&I 0.02 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00
CFNAI-MA3 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01
CFNAI Diffusion 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01

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