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Last Updated: 03/20/17

CFNAI Historical (Real-Time) Data

The CFNAI provides useful information on the current and future course of U.S. economic activity and inflation. A caveat in all statistical investigations of postwar business and inflation cycles is the relatively small number of recessions and periods of sustained increasing inflation. Therefore, it is important to keep in mind that the threshold values used to indicate the increasing likelihood of recessions and periods of sustained increasing inflation have been identified with the benefit of hindsight.

In response to the demand for additional research on "real-time" economic measures, we have begun releasing the history of the CFNAI in its entirety as it was originally made available at the time of release. For more information on the history of the CFNAI and its relation to business and inflation cycles, please see the Background Information available on this website. Finally, evaluation of a real-time indicator like the CFNAI requires the careful tracking of data revisions. The table below provides a sense of the extent to which data revisions have historically influenced the index.

CFNAI historical data are available in these two files: 2001-11 and 2012-present

Key:

  • CFMYYYY – CFNAI
  • CF3MYYYY – CFNAI-MA3
  • DIFFMYYYY – CFNAI Diffusion Index
  • PIMYYYY – Production & Income
  • EUHMYYYY – Employment, Unemployment & Hours
  • CHMYYYY – Personal Consumption & Housing
  • SOIMYYYY – Sales, Orders & Inventories
  • "MYYYY" refers to data month and year.

Median Absolute Values of Month-to-Month Revisions

Series T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5
CFNAI 0.11 0.09 0.05 0.02 0.02
     P&I 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01
     EU&H 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
     C&H 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
     SO&I 0.02 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.00
CFNAI-MA3 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01
CFNAI Diffusion 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00

Note: T denotes the last month of the index at the time of release.

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