Indexes Point to Growth Falling Even Further Below Trend in April
The Brave-Butters-Kelley (BBK) Coincident Index was –12.0 standard deviations from trend growth in April 2020, and the BBK Leading Index was –12.7 standard deviations from trend growth. In annualized real gross domestic product (GDP) units, the trend component of BBK Monthly GDP Growth was 2.3% in April and the cycle component was –33.8%. The leading subcomponent contributed –13.0% and the lagging subcomponent contributed –20.8% to the cycle component of BBK Monthly GDP Growth.