The Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators combine real-time private sector data with official labor statistics to provide a timely and comprehensive view of labor market conditions. Updated twice monthly ahead of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report, the Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators include a layoffs and other separations (discharges and quits) rate, a hiring rate for unemployed workers, and a forecast of the monthly BLS unemployment rate.

September 2025 (Advance)

Here are the latest estimates for September 2025 (reference week ending on September 13, 2025):

The figure below shows probabilities for possible values of the September 2025 BLS unemployment rate (to be reported on October 3, 2025), as predicted by the statistical model for the Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast.

Additional Details

The Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators include estimates of two rates summarizing flows into and out of unemployment that provide context for changes in the unemployment rate:

• Chicago Fed Layoffs and Other Separations Rate
• Chicago Fed Hiring Rate for Unemployed Workers

Layoffs and other job separations (such as quits and discharges) represent the most common ways in which workers experience voluntary and involuntary unemployment. The Chicago Fed Layoffs and Other Separations Rate is an estimate of the percentage of previously employed workers that experienced a separation event (layoff, quit, or discharge) in the reference week of the month used by the BLS in its Employment Situation report. As the Layoffs and Other Separations Rate increases, it puts upward pressure on the unemployment rate.

The Chicago Fed Hiring Rate for Unemployed Workers is an estimate of the percentage of previously unemployed workers that transitioned into employment during the BLS reference week. When unemployed workers successfully find a job, it reduces the upward pressure on the unemployment rate coming from layoffs and other job separations. As such, an increase in the Chicago Fed Hiring Rate for Unemployed Workers puts downward pressure on the unemployment rate.

For additional information, see Forecast Details.