The Brave-Butters-Kelley (BBK) Coincident Index was –4.2 standard deviations from trend growth in March 2020, and the BBK Leading Index was –4.3 standard deviations from trend growth. In annualized real gross domestic product (GDP) units, BBK Monthly GDP Growth was –10.8% in March. The trend component contributed 2.1%, the cycle component contributed –11.1%, and the irregular component contributed –1.8%. The leading subcomponent contributed –3.1% and the lagging subcomponent contributed –8.0% to the cycle component of BBK Monthly GDP Growth.
Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes,
March
2020
Indexes Point to Growth Falling Substantially Below Trend in March