The Brave-Butters-Kelley (BBK) Coincident Index was 1.4 standard deviations from trend growth in March 2021, and the BBK Leading Index was 1.0 standard deviations from trend growth. In annualized real gross domestic product (GDP) units, BBK Monthly GDP Growth was 5.7% in March. The trend component contributed 2.3%, the cycle component contributed 4.7%, and the irregular component contributed –1.3%. The leading subcomponent contributed 2.3% and the lagging subcomponent contributed 2.5% to the cycle component of BBK Monthly GDP Growth. In March, BBK Monthly GDP was near its February 2020 level (see figure 7 in the accompanying technical report).
Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, March 2021
Indexes Point to Monthly GDP Closing In on Its February 2020 Level in March