Scott A. Brave

Senior Economist and Economic Advisor

About Bank Publications Working Papers Presentations and Other Resources

About

Scott A. Brave is a senior economist and economic advisor in the economic research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. His current research is focused on the use of high-frequency and other big data sources in forecasting applications, mixed-frequency econometric modeling, and sports economics. His past research has been published in journals such as the International Journal of Forecasting, International Journal of Central Banking, Business Horizons, Business Economics, Journal of Statistical Software, Growth and Change: A Journal of Urban and Regional Policy, STATA Journal, Journal of Sports Economics, and Journal of Sports Analytics as well as featured in Chicago Fed research publications, including Economic Perspectives, Chicago Fed Letter, and Chicago Fed Insights. Brave received a BA in economics with honors from the University of Chicago and an MBA with concentrations in economics, statistics, and finance from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

Bank Publications

Chicago Fed Insights

Tracking Holiday Spending with CARTS 2.2 and a New Dashboard

Scott A. Brave, Ross Cole, Katherine Jolley, Ezra Karger | 2024 | December

What’s New in CARTS 2.1? Updates to Our Index Tracking National Retail Sales

Scott A. Brave, Lucas Cain, Ross Cole, Ezra Karger | 2024 | July

What Does the NFCI Tell Us About Future Economic Growth?

Max Gillet, Scott A. Brave | 2024 | June

What Was in Your Holiday CARTS? Resuming Our Index Tracking National Retail Spending

Scott A. Brave, Ezra Karger | 2024 | January

Initial UI Claims and Google Trends in the Post-Pandemic Era

Scott A. Brave, Levi Bognar, R. Andrew Butters | 2023 | June

Introducing CARTS: A New Index Tracking National Retail Spending

Scott A. Brave, Ross Cole, Michael Fogarty, Ezra Karger, Liam Puknys | 2021 | July

A First Look at the Employment Response by Industry to Covid-19 Vaccine Take-Up

Scott A. Brave, Stephanie Grove | 2021 | July

Measuring the Recovery in Economic Activity During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Scott A. Brave, Ross Cole | 2020 | August

Another Look at the Correlation Between Google Trends and Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, Michael Fogarty | 2020 | July

A Closer Look at the Correlation Between Google Trends and Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, Michael Fogarty | 2020 | June

Measuring the Decline in Economic Activity During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Scott A. Brave, Ross Cole | 2020 | June

What Can Revisions to the NFCI Tell Us About Stock Market Volatility?

Scott A. Brave, Ross Cole, Michael Fogarty | 2020 | May

Chicago Fed Letter

Searching for “Inflation Canaries” in Household Surveys

Scott A. Brave, Ben Henken, Bart Hobijn, Ezra Karger, Anna Paulson, Jim Royal | 2024 | No. 503 | October Download

Persistently Pessimistic: Consumer and Small Business Sentiment After the Covid Recession

Jacob S. Herbstman, Scott A. Brave | 2023 | No. 490 | November Download

Measuring the Effects of the Covid-19 Delta Wave on the U.S. Hourly Labor Market

Scott A. Brave, Ross Cole, Stephanie Grove | 2021 | No. 461 | October Download

Looking Down the Road with ALEX: Forecasting U.S. GDP

Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, Michael Fogarty | 2020 | No. 447 | October Download

The Stay-at-Home Labor Market: Google Searches, Unemployment Insurance, and Public Health Orders

Daniel Aaronson, Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, Michael Fogarty | 2020 | No. 436 | May Download

Measuring Detroit’s Economic Progress with the DEAI

Scott A. Brave, Ross Cole, Paul Traub | 2020 | No. 434 | March Download

A “Big Data” View of the U.S. Economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes

Scott A. Brave, Ross Cole, David Kelley | 2019 | No. 422 Download

What Does Labor Market Tightness Tell Us About the End of an Expansion?

Scott A. Brave, David Kelley | 2018 | No. 403 Download

Introducing the Chicago Fed’s New Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index

Scott A. Brave, David Kelley | 2017 | No. 386 Download

Tracking Detroit’s Economic Recovery After Bankruptcy with a New Index

Scott A. Brave, Paul Traub | 2017 | No. 376 Download

Using Private Sector “Big Data” as an Economic Indicator: The Case of Construction Spending

Daniel Aaronson, Scott A. Brave, Ross Cole | 2016 | No. 366 Download

Is There Still Slack in the Labor Market?

Daniel Aaronson, Scott A. Brave, David Kelley | 2016 | No. 359 Download

Using the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book to Track Economic Activity

Scott A. Brave, Thomas Walstrum | 2014 | No. 328 | November Download

Estimating the Trend in Employment Growth

Daniel Aaronson, Scott A. Brave | 2013 | No. 312 | July Download

Estimating the Trend Rate of Economic Growth Using the CFNAI

Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters | 2013 | No. 311 | June Download

Detecting Early Signs of Financial Instability

Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters | 2012 | No. 305 | December Download

A Different Way to Review the Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Scott A. Brave, Max Lichtenstein | 2012 | No. 298 | May Download

Predicting Gross State Product Growth with the Chicago Fed’s Midwest Economy Index

Scott A. Brave, Norman Wang | 2011 | No. 293 | December Download

A Snapshot of the Midwest Economy: Past and Present

Scott A. Brave, Chenfei Lu | 2010 | No. 280 | November Download

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Turns Ten—Analyzing Its First Decade of Performance

Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters | 2010 | No. 273 | April Download

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Business Cycles

Scott A. Brave | 2009 | No. 268 | November Download

How Does Labor Adjustment in This Recession Compare with the Past?

Daniel Aaronson, Scott A. Brave | 2009 | No. 263 | June Download

Economic Trends and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Scott A. Brave | 2008 | No. 250 | May Download

Economic Perspectives

A New “Big Data” Index of U.S. Economic Activity

Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, David Kelley | 2019 | Vol. 43 | No. 1 | February Download

The Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions: Quantifying the Seventh District’s Beige Book Report

Scott A. Brave, Thomas Walstrum, Jacob Berman | 2015 | Vol. 39 | 3rd Quarter Download

Nowcasting Using the Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters | 2014 | Vol. 38 Download

Monitoring Financial Stability: A Financial Conditions Index Approach

Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters | 2011 | Vol. 35 | No. 1 Download

In Search of a Robust Inflation Forecast

Scott A. Brave, Jonas D. M. Fisher | 2004 | Vol. 28 | No. 4 | November | 4th Quarter Download

Michigan Economy Blog

What Does Detroit’s 2019 Per Capita Income Growth Tell Us About the City’s Pre-Pandemic Renaissance?

Scott A. Brave, Ross Cole, Elizabeth Kepner, Leslie McGranahan, Paul Traub | 2021 | May

Midwest Economy Blog

Updated forecasts of Seventh District GSP growth

Scott A. Brave | 2017 | April

Updated Forecasts of Seventh District GSP Growth

Scott A. Brave | 2016 | April

Seventh District Update, April 2015

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2015 | April

Seventh District Update, March 2015

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2015 | March

Seventh District Update, January 2015

Scott A. Brave, Thomas Walstrum | 2015 | February

Seventh District Update, December 2014

Scott A. Brave, Thomas Walstrum | 2014 | December

Seventh District Update, October 2014

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2014 | October

Gross State Product Growth and the Midwest Economy Index

Scott A. Brave, Thomas Walstrum | 2014 | October

Seventh District Update, July 2014

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2014 | July

Seventh District Update

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2014 | June

Seventh District Update

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2014 | April

Seventh District Update

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2014 | March

Seventh District Update

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2014 | January

Seventh District Economic Update

Scott A. Brave, Thomas Walstrum | 2013 | December

Seventh District Update

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2013 | October

Seventh District Update, September 2013

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2013 | September

Seventh District Update July, 2013

Norman Wang, Scott A. Brave | 2013 | July

Seventh District Update

Norman Wang, Scott A. Brave | 2013 | June

Seventh District Update

Norman Wang, Scott A. Brave | 2013 | April

An Update on 2012 GSP Growth Forecasts

Norman Wang, Scott A. Brave | 2013 | March

Seventh District Update

Norman Wang, Scott A. Brave | 2013 | March

Seventh District Update

Norman Wang, Scott A. Brave | 2013 | January

Seventh District Update

Norman Wang, Scott A. Brave | 2012 | December

Seventh District Economy Update

Norman Wang, Scott A. Brave | 2012 | July

Seventh District Update

Scott A. Brave, Norman Wang | 2012 | June

Seventh District Update

Scott A. Brave, Norman Wang | 2012 | April

Updated Estimates of Gross State Product Growth for the Seventh District

Scott A. Brave, Norman Wang | 2012 | March

Midwest Economy Update

Norman Wang, Scott A. Brave | 2012 | January

An Uneven Recovery: The Chicago and Milwaukee Labor Markets

Max Lichtenstein, Scott A. Brave | 2011 | November

District Economy Update

Scott A. Brave, Norman Wang | 2011 | November

Beige Book and District Indicators

Norman Wang, Scott A. Brave | 2011 | September

Midwest Economy Update

Norman Wang, Scott A. Brave | 2011 | August

Interpreting the Midwest Economy Index

Scott A. Brave | 2011 | March

Working papers

Working Papers

Charged and Almost Ready—Stylized Facts About the Emerging Market for Used BEVs

Levi Bognar, Scott A. Brave, Thomas H. Klier, Leslie McGranahan | 2023 | No. 2023-35 | September Download

Tracking U.S. Consumers in Real Time with a New Weekly Index of Retail Trade (REVISED November 2021)

Scott A. Brave, Michael Fogarty, Daniel Aaronson, Ezra Karger, Spencer Krane | 2021 | No. 2021-05 | March Download

The perils of working with Big Data and a SMALL framework you can use to avoid them (REVISED March 2, 2021)

Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, Michael Fogarty | 2020 | No. 2020-35 | December Download

Using the Eye of the Storm to Predict the Wave of Covid-19 UI Claims (REVISED April 2020)

Daniel Aaronson, Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, Daniel Sacks, Boyoung Seo | 2020 | No. 2020-10 | April Download

Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Realtime (REVISED March 2021)

Scott A. Brave, Charles Gascon, William Kluender, Thomas Walstrum | 2019 | No. 2019-11 Download

Forecasting Economic Activity with Mixed Frequency Bayesian VARs (Revised July 2018)

Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, Alejandro Justiniano | 2016 | No. 2016-05 Download

The Chicago Fed DSGE Model

Scott A. Brave, Jeffrey R. Campbell, Jonas D. M. Fisher, Alejandro Justiniano | 2012 | No. 2012-02 | August Download

Federal Reserve Policies and Financial Market Conditions during the Crisis (REVISED July 2011)

Scott A. Brave, Hesna Genay | 2011 | No. 2011-04 | May Download

Gathering Insights on the Forest from the Trees: A New Metric for Financial Conditions

Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters | 2010 | No. 2010-07 | January Download

Presentations and Other Resources

Chicago Fed Letter No. 376

Publication

Supplemental Information

Indicators List

Chicago Fed Letter No. 311

Publication

Supplemental Information

Technical Report

Blending Economic Statistics and Big Data: The Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary

Slides presented during the 2021 NABE-TEC Conference

An Introduction to the Chicago Fed's Activity Indexes

Slides presented during the NABE Economic Measurement Seminar: Federal Reserve District Research and Surveys