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Scott A. Brave

Senior Economist

Scott A. Brave is a senior economist in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. His chief responsibilities include the releases for the Chicago Fed's economic activity and financial conditions indexes. Brave’s current research is focused on the use of high-frequency data in forecasting applications, mixed-frequency econometric modeling, and sports economics. His past research has been published in journals such as the International Journal of Forecasting, International Journal of Central Banking, Growth and Change: A Journal of Urban and Regional Policy, STATA Journal, Journal of Sports Economics, and Journal of Sports Analytics as well as featured in Chicago Fed research publications, including Economic Perspectives and Chicago Fed Letter.

Brave received a BA in economics with honors from the University of Chicago and an MBA with concentrations in economics, statistics, and finance from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

Chicago Fed Letter
Looking Down the Road with ALEX: Forecasting U.S. GDP
Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, Michael Fogarty | 2020 | No. 447 | October Download
The Stay-at-Home Labor Market: Google Searches, Unemployment Insurance, and Public Health Orders
Daniel Aaronson, Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, Michael Fogarty | 2020 | No. 436 | May Download
Measuring Detroit’s Economic Progress with the DEAI
Scott A. Brave, Ross Cole, Paul Traub | 2020 | No. 434 | March Download
A “Big Data” View of the U.S. Economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Scott A. Brave, Ross Cole, David Kelley | 2019 | No. 422 Download
What Does Labor Market Tightness Tell Us About the End of an Expansion?
Scott A. Brave, David Kelley | 2018 | No. 403 Download
Introducing the Chicago Fed’s New Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index
Scott A. Brave, David Kelley | 2017 | No. 386 Download
Tracking Detroit’s Economic Recovery After Bankruptcy with a New Index
Scott A. Brave, Paul Traub | 2017 | No. 376 Download
Using Private Sector “Big Data” as an Economic Indicator: The Case of Construction Spending
Daniel Aaronson, Scott A. Brave, Ross Cole | 2016 | No. 366 Download
Is There Still Slack in the Labor Market?
Daniel Aaronson, Scott A. Brave, David Kelley | 2016 | No. 359 Download
Using the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book to Track Economic Activity
Scott A. Brave, Thomas Walstrum | 2014 | No. 328 | November Download
Estimating the Trend in Employment Growth
Daniel Aaronson, Scott A. Brave | 2013 | No. 312 | July Download
Estimating the Trend Rate of Economic Growth Using the CFNAI
Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters | 2013 | No. 311 | June Download
Detecting Early Signs of Financial Instability
Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters | 2012 | No. 305 | December Download
A Different Way to Review the Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Scott A. Brave, Max Lichtenstein | 2012 | No. 298 | May Download
Predicting Gross State Product Growth with the Chicago Fed’s Midwest Economy Index
Scott A. Brave, Norman Wang | 2011 | No. 293 | December Download
A Snapshot of the Midwest Economy: Past and Present
Scott A. Brave, Chenfei Lu | 2010 | No. 280 | November Download
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Turns Ten—Analyzing Its First Decade of Performance
Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters | 2010 | No. 273 | April Download
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Business Cycles
Scott A. Brave | 2009 | No. 268 | November Download
How Does Labor Adjustment in This Recession Compare with the Past?
Daniel Aaronson, Scott A. Brave | 2009 | No. 263 | June Download
Economic Trends and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Scott A. Brave | 2008 | No. 250 | May Download
Economic Perspectives
A New “Big Data” Index of U.S. Economic Activity
Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, David Kelley | 2019 | Vol. 43 | No. 2019-1 | February Download
The Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions: Quantifying the Seventh District’s Beige Book Report
Scott A. Brave, Thomas Walstrum, Jacob Berman | 2015 | Vol. 39 | 3rd Quarter Download
Nowcasting Using the Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters | 2014 | Vol. 38 Download
Monitoring Financial Stability: A Financial Conditions Index Approach
Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters | 2011 | Vol. 35 | No. 2011-1 Download
In Search of a Robust Inflation Forecast
Scott A. Brave, Jonas D. M. Fisher | 2004 | Vol. 28 | No. 2004-4 | November | 4th Quarter Download

Working Papers
Tracking U.S. Consumers in Real Time with a New Weekly Index of Retail Trade (REVISED June 2021)
Scott A. Brave, Michael Fogarty, Daniel Aaronson, Ezra Karger, Spencer Krane | 2021 | No. 2021-05 | March Download
The perils of working with Big Data and a SMALL framework you can use to avoid them (REVISED March 2, 2021)
Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, Michael Fogarty | 2020 | No. 2020-35 | December Download
Using the Eye of the Storm to Predict the Wave of Covid-19 UI Claims (REVISED April 2020)
Daniel Aaronson, Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, Daniel Sacks, Boyoung Seo | 2020 | No. 2020-10 | April Download
Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Realtime (REVISED March 2021)
Scott A. Brave, Charles Gascon, William Kluender, Thomas Walstrum | 2019 | No. 2019-11 Download
Forecasting Economic Activity with Mixed Frequency Bayesian VARs (Revised July 2018)
Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, Alejandro Justiniano | 2016 | No. 2016-05 Download
The Chicago Fed DSGE Model
Scott A. Brave, Jeffrey R. Campbell, Jonas D. M. Fisher, Alejandro Justiniano | 2012 | No. 2012-02 | August Download
Federal Reserve Policies and Financial Market Conditions during the Crisis (REVISED July 2011)
Scott A. Brave, Hesna Genay | 2011 | No. 2011-04 | May Download
Gathering Insights on the Forest from the Trees: A New Metric for Financial Conditions
Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters | 2010 | No. 2010-07 | January Download

Chicago Fed Letter No. 376

Publication

Supplemental Information

Indicators List

Chicago Fed Letter No. 311

Publication

Supplemental Information

Technical Report

An Introduction to the Chicago Fed's Activity Indexes

Slides presented during the NABE Economic Measurement Seminar: Federal Reserve District Research and Surveys

Midwest Economy Blog
Updated forecasts of Seventh District GSP growth
April 19, 2017
Updated Forecasts of Seventh District GSP Growth
April 29, 2016
Seventh District Update, April 2015
April 15, 2015
Seventh District Update, March 2015
March 5, 2015
Seventh District Update, January 2015
February 14, 2015
Seventh District Update, December 2014
December 3, 2014
Seventh District Update, October 2014
October 15, 2014
Gross State Product Growth and the Midwest Economy Index
October 7, 2014
Seventh District Update, July 2014
July 16, 2014
Seventh District Update
June 4, 2014
Seventh District Update
April 16, 2014
Seventh District Update
March 10, 2014
Seventh District Update
January 15, 2014
Seventh District Economic Update
December 12, 2013
Seventh District Update
October 21, 2013
Seventh District Update, September 2013
September 5, 2013
Seventh District Update July, 2013
July 17, 2013
Seventh District Update
June 6, 2013
Seventh District Update
April 17, 2013
An Update on 2012 GSP Growth Forecasts
March 29, 2013
Seventh District Update
March 6, 2013
Seventh District Update
January 16, 2013
Seventh District Update
December 3, 2012
Seventh District Economy Update
July 18, 2012
Seventh District Update
June 6, 2012
Seventh District Update
April 11, 2012
Updated Estimates of Gross State Product Growth for the Seventh District
March 29, 2012
Midwest Economy Update
January 11, 2012
An Uneven Recovery: The Chicago and Milwaukee Labor Markets
November 21, 2011
District Economy Update
November 1, 2011
Beige Book and District Indicators
September 27, 2011
Midwest Economy Update
August 1, 2011
Interpreting the Midwest Economy Index
March 17, 2011
Michigan Economy Blog
What Does Detroit’s 2019 Per Capita Income Growth Tell Us About the City’s Pre-Pandemic Renaissance?
May 6, 2021
ChicagoFed Insights Blog
Introducing CARTS: A New Index Tracking National Retail Spending
July 12, 2021
A First Look at the Employment Response by Industry to Covid-19 Vaccine Take-Up
July 1, 2021
Measuring the Recovery in Economic Activity During the Covid-19 Pandemic
August 5, 2020
Another Look at the Correlation Between Google Trends and Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
July 7, 2020
A Closer Look at the Correlation Between Google Trends and Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
June 17, 2020
Measuring the Decline in Economic Activity During the Covid-19 Pandemic
June 15, 2020
What Can Revisions to the NFCI Tell Us About Stock Market Volatility?
May 4, 2020
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