Can sectoral reallocation explain the jobless recovery?
Recent employment trends are puzzling.1 Historically,
the number of nonfarm jobs has grown rapidly following
the end of a recession. For instance, during each
of the five recessions of the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s,
it took less than four months for employment to exceed
its level at the end of the recession (“the trough”).
On average, 26 months into those recoveries, employment
was 5.4 percent higher than at the end of the recession
and 3.6 percent higher than at the previous
expansion’s peak.
