Evans on the Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate

Conducting Monetary Policy in an Evolving Economy

"As I assess current conditions, my confidence that inflation will rise to 2 percent before too much more time depends critically on a) whether the U.S. economy is at full employment now or will be relatively soon and b) whether inflation expectations are consistent with achieving a symmetric inflation objective of 2 percent."

Speech delivered on October 11, 2016, before the Australian Business Economists Luncheon in Sydney, Australia. Read more...

Monetary Policy in a Lower Interest Rate Environment

"I do not want to be seen as a “glass half-empty” kind of forecaster — the type who sees gloom and doom everywhere. I have reasonable confidence in my forecast for U.S. GDP growth running a bit above potential and for further improvements in labor markets."

Speech delivered on October 5, 2016, before the CFA Society in Auckland, New Zealand. Read more...

Lower for Longer in Today’s Banking Environment

“…monetary policy does have a direct influence on the equilibrium nominal interest rate, which is the sum of the equilibrium real rate and expected inflation. This influence depends on the central bank’s choice of an inflation target and its success at achieving that target over time.”

Speech delivered on September 28, 2016, at the Community Banking in the 21st Century Research and Policy Conference in St. Louis, MO. Read more...

Reflections on the Current Monetary Policy Environment

"...as I survey the economic landscape, I see other factors that could hold growth back even after these impediments recede. Broadly speaking, an economy’s long-run growth potential depends upon increases in its available productive resources and the technological improvements that enable those resources to produce more."

Speech delivered at the Global Interdependence Center in London, England, on June 3, 2016. Read more...

The Implications of Slow Growth for Monetary Policy

"My baseline outlook has real gross domestic product (GDP) growing at a moderate 2 to 2-1/2 percent annual rate in 2016 and inflation gradually approaching 2 percent over the next three years. But given the current economic landscape in the U.S. and internationally, I see the risks to both of these projections as weighted to the downside."

Speech delivered at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong on April 5, 2016. Read more...

Connecting the Dots on Monetary Policy

"...lower real rates imply lower nominal rates even when inflation is at its target. So, the equilibrium federal funds rate, which is associated with a neutral monetary policy — policy that is neither expansionary nor contractionary — is lower in an economy with a lower potential output growth. Therefore, the FOMC must take estimates of potential output growth into account when calibrating the stance of monetary policy."

Speech delivered at the Corridor Business Journal in Cedar Rapids, IA on January 13, 2016. Read more...
 

Connecting the Dots on Monetary Policy

"So what about this year? Well, I’ve scaled things back a bit, and anticipate the economy will grow in the range of 2 to 2-1/2 percent in 2016. So, close to or a bit better than this past year. I also expect the unemployment rate to come down a couple of tenths and end the year at about 4-3/4 percent."

Speech delivered at the Wisconsin Bankers Association in Madison, WI on January 7, 2016. Read more...