• Print
  • Email

Working Papers, No. 2025-11, July 2025 Crossref
AI in the Office and the Factory: Evidence from Administrative Software Registry Data

(Revised July 2026)

What is the effect of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment and wages? Using administrative data on a comprehensive set of AI applications developed in Brazil, I show that AI is widely used not only in administrative tasks but also in the production setting, where it primarily supports process optimization and quality control. Exploiting exogenous variation in AI development costs, I find that AI affects administrative and production workers differently. In office occupations, AI reduces employment, especially among young workers performing data-processing tasks. In production occupations, it increases employment of young and low-skilled workers by helping them perform decision-making tasks that previously required expertise. On net, AI increases employment in Brazil because gains in production outweigh losses in office work.


Working papers are not edited, and all opinions and errors are the responsibility of the author(s). The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.

Having trouble accessing something on this page? Please send us an email and we will get back to you as quickly as we can.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 230 South LaSalle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60604-1413, USA. Tel. (312) 322-5322

Copyright © 2026. All rights reserved.

Please review our Privacy Policy | Legal Notices