Current Data

Index Suggests Economic Growth Decreased in July

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.19 in July from –0.18 in June. One of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from June, and three categories made negative contributions in July. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.18 in July from –0.26 in June.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to –0.31 in July from –0.40 in June. Thirty-two of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in July, while 53 made negative contributions. Forty-two indicators improved from June to July, while 41 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 17 made negative contributions.

• Production-related indicators contributed –0.10 to the CFNAI in July, down from +0.01 in June.
• The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.02 in July, up from –0.10 in June.
• Employment-related indicators contributed –0.06 to the CFNAI in July, up from –0.08 in June.
• The personal consumption and housing category made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in July, up from –0.01 in June.

CFNAI, CFNAI-MA3, and CFNAI Diffusion for the Latest Six Months and Year-Ago Month

Note: A zero value for the CFNAI has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Notes: Shading represents periods of sustained increasing inflation. For details on the timing of these periods based on readings of core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices), see pp. 4–5 of the background information document. An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

Notes: Shading indicates official periods of recession as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Following a period of economic expansion, an increasing likelihood of a recession has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value below –0.70. Conversely, following a period of economic contraction, an increasing likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above –0.70 and a significant likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20.

Notes: Shading indicates official periods of recession as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The CFNAI Diffusion Index represents the three-month moving average of the sum of the absolute values of the weights for the underlying indicators whose contribution to the CFNAI is positive in a given month less the sum of the absolute values of the weights for those indicators whose contribution is negative or neutral in a given month. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35.