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Chicago Fed Letter, No. 183, November 2002
A Regional Perspective on the U.S. Business Cycle

It is not difficult to come up with a definition of the business cycle that most of us would understand. A thornier issue is how to come up with an empirical measure of the business cycle. This article tackles the question and, in the process, offers a new measure of the U.S. business cycle, derived from regional data. A highlight of this approach is that it facilitates the identification of region-specific influences, such as technology booms or commodity price spikes.

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