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Economic Perspectives, Vol. 27, No. 1, January 2003
An evaluation of real GDP forecasts: 1996–2001
During the second half of the 1990s, forecasters made large and persistent underpredictions of GDP growth; subsequently, they missed the drop off into the recession of 2001. Forecasters do not appear to have behaved unusually during this period: Their out-period forecasts were not far from their perceptions of longer-run trends. This suggests that the forecast errors in 1996–2001 likely reflected some unusual behavior in the economy.
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