Comparing Patterns of Default among Prime and Subprime Mortgages
We have all heard a lot in recent months about the
soaring number of defaults among subprime mortgage
borrowers; and while concern over this segment of
the mortgage market is certainly justified, subprime
mortgages account for only about one-quarter of the
total outstanding home mortgage debt in the United
States. The remaining 75 percent is in prime loans.
Unlike subprime loans, prime loans are made to borrowers
with good credit, who fully document their income
and make traditional down payments. Default
rates on prime loans are increasing rapidly, although
they remain significantly lower than those on subprime
loans. For example, among prime loans made in 2005,
2.2 percent were 60 days or more overdue 12 months
after the loan was made (our definition of default). For
loans made in 2006, this percentage nearly doubled to
4.2 percent, and for loans made in 2007, it rose by another
20 percent, reaching 4.8 percent. By comparison,
the percentage of subprime loans that had defaulted after
12 months was 14.6 percent for loans made in 2005,
20.5 percent for loans made in 2006, and 21.9 percent
for loans made in 2007. To put these figures in perspective,
among loans originated in 2002 and 2003, the share
of prime mortgages that defaulted within 12 months
ranged from 1.4 percent to 2.2 percent and the share of
defaulting subprime mortgages was less than 7 percent.