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Working Papers, No. 2024-16, August 2024 Crossref
Credit When You Need It

We estimate the causal effect of emergency credit on households’ finances after a negative shock. To do so, we link application data from the U.S. Federal Disaster Loan program, which provides loans to households that have uninsured damages from a federally-declared natural disaster, to a panel of credit records before and after the shock. We exploit a discontinuity in the loan approval rules that led applicants with debt-to-income ratios below 40% to be differentially likely to be approved. Using an instrumented difference-in-differences research design, we find that credit provision at the time of a shock significantly reduces severe financial distress, decreasing the likelihood of filing for bankruptcy by 61% in the three years following the disaster.


Working papers are not edited, and all opinions and errors are the responsibility of the author(s). The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.

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