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Working Papers, No. 2024-16, August 2024 Crossref
Credit When You Need It

(Revised May 2025)

What are the causal effects of emergency credit on households’ finances after a negative shock? We link U.S. Federal Disaster Loan application data to applicants’ credit records before and after a natural disaster. Using an instrumented difference-in-differences research design exploiting a discontinuity in underwriting, we find that credit provision significantly reduces severe financial distress. We explore mechanisms using additional quasi-experimental variation in interest rates, finding support for a liquidity-based explanation. Disaster loan provision also has real effects in the form of additional car purchases. Well-timed liquidity provided to households in acute need has substantial and persistent positive effects.


Working papers are not edited, and all opinions and errors are the responsibility of the author(s). The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.

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