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Working Papers, No. 2025-23, November 2025 Crossref
One Fed, Many Voices: Coordinated Communication vs. Transparent Debate

(Revised October 15, 2026)
We study how coordination in central bank communication affects monetary policy transmission. Using FOMC speeches, we measure similarity to the Chair’s preceding post-meeting communication as an observable manifestation of coordination and construct speech surprises from high-frequency changes in eurodollar futures. On average, these surprises have little effect on inflation expectations or equity prices. Greater coordination strengthens transmission: aligned speeches are not redundant for financial markets but intensify earlier policy signals, lowering inflation expectations and equity prices after tightening surprises. At lower similarity, responses weaken and may reverse. A nonlinear general equilibrium model with incomplete information rationalizes these findings.


Working papers are not edited, and all opinions and errors are the responsibility of the author(s). The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.

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