(Revised March 27, 2026)
We study how observed coordination in central bank communication affects monetary policy transmission. We assess the alignment of 481 speeches by FOMC members since 2007 with post-meeting communication using a text-similarity measure (cosine similarity). To identify policy shocks, we use high-frequency changes in eurodollar futures around each speech. On average, these monetary policy speech surprises have no significant effects on inflation expectations or equity prices. However, speech surprises more closely aligned with prior FOMC communications strengthen monetary policy transmission, while those reflecting visible disagreement significantly weaken it. A general equilibrium model with incomplete information rationalizes these findings.
One Fed, Many Voices: Coordinated Communication vs. Transparent Debate