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Progress toward Unemployment and Inflation Objectives

The unemployment rate peaked in late 2009. Since then, the economy has made steady progress toward the FOMC’s unemployment rate objective. The current unemployment rate is below the central tendency of FOMC participants’ longer run projections. However, core inflation has consistently run below the FOMC’s 2 percent goal since the end of 2007 and has been near our symmetric target only since March 2018.

unemployment chart

Notes: FOMC projections are the median of the FOMC participants' forecasts for the unemployment rate as reported in the most recent Summary of Economic Projections. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Open Market Committee from Haver Analytics.

inflation chart

Notes: FOMC projections are the median of FOMC participants' forecasts for core PCE inflation as reported in the most recent Summary of Economic Projections. Source: Federal Open Market Committee and U.S. Bureau of Economic Advisors from Haver Analytics.

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